The Senate’s vote to extend enhanced ACA subsidies was the clearest sign yet that congressional Republicans are fracturing as they head toward the midterms. Four GOP senators — Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Dan Sullivan, and Josh Hawley — joined Democrats to back a three-year extension. The measure failed, but the defectors matter. Two are facing reelection in 2026. All four have been pressured by constituents facing premium spikes. And every one of them knows that allowing subsidies to expire is a political nightmare.

The problem is that no Republican-sponsored alternatives have enough momentum to pass. Hardliners insist insurers are bluffing about catastrophic premium hikes and argue that federal subsidies can flow to abortion providers in violation of the Hyde Amendment. Leadership is frozen, moderates are restless, and none of the policy paths available appear functional. My read: the subsidies will expire. And the longer Republicans look divided on health care, the messier 2026 becomes.

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Trump Loses Indiana — and a Bit of His Grip on the GOP

Trump’s aggressive mid-cycle redistricting push hit a brick wall in Indiana, where 21 Republican state senators joined Democrats to defeat a map designed to produce two more GOP-friendly House seats. The vote wasn’t close. This wasn’t quiet dissent. It was a collective “no.” And the reason is obvious: Republican lawmakers are terrified of a “dummymander,” a map that overreaches and accidentally creates more vulnerable districts in a bad year. If 2026 is shaping up to be a Democratic wave — and every special election suggests it might be — legislators don’t want to be caught holding the bag.

Trump’s allies threatened primaries. Outside groups ran ads. J.D. Vance weighed in personally. None of it mattered. If you want a temperature check on Trump’s leverage right now, this is it. He still commands loyalty, but not fear. And when Republicans stop fearing the leader of their own party, they start preparing for the next one. That’s how lame-duck dynamics begin — long before anyone says the words out loud.

A Hard Pivot on Venezuela

The administration also announced new sanctions on Nicolás Maduro’s inner circle, targeting his nephews, his wife, and a network of businessmen and shippers. This came just after the U.S. seized a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude. For now, this is a sanctions campaign — not military escalation — but it fits a familiar Trump-era pattern: push to the brink, stop just short, and ask adversaries whether they still want to keep playing.

With Iran, the strategy eventually led to direct strikes. With Venezuela, nobody knows yet. But every foreign-policy story pulling headlines away from domestic issues is a political risk for Trump. His base doesn’t want global adventurism. They want America First, not America Everywhere.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

02:06 - Nuzzi/Lizza

10:46 - Update

11:01 - Obamacare

12:14 - Indiana Redistricting

15:53 - Venezuela Sanctions

18:35 - Matt Laslo on the WH Press Corps

54:10 - Wrap-up

I’ve long found the January 6 pipe bombs case particularly frustrating. Too serious to be forgotten, too mysterious to be ignored, we’ve had no answers for nearly five years. And now, at long last, we have an arrest.

The alleged bomber, Brian Cole Jr., faces federal explosive-device charges that could carry up to 20 years apiece. Court documents describe receipts, phone pings, and cameras placing him near the RNC and DNC buildings on January 5, 2021. All the evidence cited appears to have been in federal hands for some time, which naturally raises the question: why now? The government says enhanced forensic review — not new intelligence — finally broke the case open. But the timing will fuel speculation until prosecutors offer more transparency.

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For me, this case matters not only because it’s finally moving forward but because it was always part of the emotional experience of January 6, even if the public didn’t talk about it. Lawmakers were moved and evacuated not just because of the riot at the Capitol, but because of the pipe bombs. It shaped decisions, reactions, and rhetoric that day. The mystery left a vacuum. We’re finally filling it.

The week also brought new revelations about the Venezuelan drug-boat strike, which continues to create friction between congressional Republicans and the Trump administration. Admiral Frank Bradley told lawmakers he never received a “kill everybody” directive from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, directly contradicting a Washington Post story that ignited days of speculation. Bradley maintains he followed detailed written orders, not verbal instructions, and that subsequent strikes in similar encounters resulted in survivors being rescued, not targeted.

Republican lawmakers — many of them veterans themselves — are increasingly frustrated by the administration’s lack of clarity. They want the full video, the exact legal guidance, and the chain of command spelled out plainly. Their frustration isn’t ideological. It’s procedural. Military rules of engagement matter because credibility matters. When the administration’s communication is muddled, confidence erodes. And with foreign policy front and center again — from Gaza to Ukraine to Venezuela — credibility is the one currency Washington can’t afford to spend recklessly.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:46 - Evan Scrimshaw on Recent News

00:26:48 - Update

00:27:20 - January 6th Pipe Bomb Arrest

00:34:18 - Venezuelan Drug Boats

00:37:15 - Gaza Peace Plan

00:39:27 - 2026 Primary Draft

01:31:20 - Wrap-up