There’s a growing expectation that the National Guard will soon be deployed to Chicago. It hasn’t happened yet, but signs are pointing to it. Several weeks ago, the Guard was sent into Washington, D.C., and now there’s enough time and distance to measure the results — carjackings down 80 percent, violent crime down over 30 percent. That’s not just coming from the White House. Muriel Bowser, the Democratic mayor of D.C., is also saying it. She doesn’t want to be on the wrong side of public sentiment. She’s even making overtures to the White House about keeping some form of Guard presence to avoid a crime snapback.

But Washington is a special case. It’s a federal district, and its autonomy is only delegated by the government. Chicago is not. In a federal system, cities like Chicago are under the control of their state governments — in this case, the governor and mayor, neither of whom want the National Guard there. That’s what makes this next move, if it happens, such a flashpoint. If Trump sends in the Guard — and I do believe it’s a when, not an if — the legal and political battle will hinge on the how, the how many, and the where.

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And then there’s the question of when they leave. Lawsuits will be filed. Injunctions will be issued. But I’m convinced this is going to happen because it’s good politics for Trump. He sees the Nixon playbook from 1968 — using force to control urban unrest — and believes it worked then. He believes it’ll work now. And if you look at the RealClearPolitics numbers, there’s a logic to it.

Trump is underwater by 9.3 points on foreign policy. On the economy, he’s down 11.5. On inflation, it’s nearly minus 20. The country doesn’t think he’s doing a good job on the issues that normally shape campaigns. Foreign policy numbers can shift — if hostages are released or a ceasefire happens in Ukraine, those could bounce. But economic sentiment is more stubborn. And the danger is that Trump falls into the same trap Biden did: saying the economy’s fine while people feel like it’s not.

That disconnect isn’t abstract. It’s felt at the gas pump, at the grocery store. It’s the pain of realizing you don’t have the money to cover the tab, of pulling items from your cart while your kids ask why you’re crying. It’s a humiliating, personal experience, and telling people it’s not real only makes it worse. Trump’s not winning that argument.

But he is closer on immigration. It’s loud, it’s polarizing, but he’s only down 1.3 points in aggregate. Polls in August were a split: tied in Harvard Harris and YouGov, down eight in Reuters, up ten in Morning Consult. Two ties, two outliers. For an issue that gets as much airtime as immigration, that kind of polling tells you Trump’s message still resonates.

And then there’s crime. The only issue where Trump is in the black — plus one. That’s after the Guard was deployed to D.C. He sees this as the cornerstone of his pitch: what if government actually worked for you? What if America came first? He wants to frame Democrats as soft, as willing to defend criminals while waving spreadsheets that say crime is technically down. And he wants to pit that against your lived experience — that you don’t feel safe, that your neighbor’s car got broken into, that you hesitate before getting on the subway late at night.

It’s federally illegal. I believe the courts will eventually force a pullback. But not before Trump gets the message out. Because on this issue, unlike all the others, the American people are with him.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:40 - Trump Crime Ratings

00:13:31 - Update

00:16:23 - RFK Jr.

00:23:21 - Eric Adams

00:26:42 - Free Press Deal

00:31:11 - Interview with Jen Briney

01:04:29 - Wrap-up

The Democratic National Committee just wrapped up its meeting in Minneapolis, and one of the big ideas floated behind closed doors was a midterm convention. The logic is clear. Democrats are dealing with a brand problem. They want to reset, energize, and show that the party still has fresh faces and energy. That means television time. That means spectacle. So: midterm convention. And I’m all for it. I would love to cover one. I love conventions. Give me a big show with music, lights, messaging — I’m there.

I don’t know if Trump caught wind of this plan early or just read it when the story dropped, but it’s clear what happened next. He jumped on Truth Social and declared that the Republican Party would also hold a midterm convention. Because if the Democrats are getting a big TV moment, then he’s going to get one too — and he’s going to make it better. That’s how Trump operates. If you’re doing a spectacle, he’s doing a bigger one. The man knows television, and conventions are made-for-TV moments. So now we might have two of them.

What would those look like? For the Democrats, expect the same tightly-scripted, ultra-managed production they’ve always delivered. Nobody does a convention script like the Democratic Party. For all their other dysfunctions, they know how to build a prime-time political package. The Republicans? Expect a Trump rally — but bigger, glossier, and even more overloaded with segments, guests, and applause lines. Multiple nights, probably. A celebration of Trumpism that looks less like a traditional political event and more like an awards show.

The Path to a Shutdown is Clear

Meanwhile, Axios also reported that Democratic leaders in Congress have landed on their key demand to avoid a government shutdown: the reversal of Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill. And this is where things get interesting. Because while I’m not here to defend either side — I come from media, not partisanship — I can tell you that this is exactly the kind of story that drives conservatives crazy. This is what fuels the belief that the media covers these fights with blinders on. Because here’s the reality: Democrats want to shut down the government. They are choosing this. They want a shutdown — not because they think it will solve something, but because they think it’s a strong midterm frame.

That frame is Medicaid cuts. Specifically, Medicaid cuts for rural hospitals. That’s the message. Not the whole bill, not the fiscal fight — just the healthcare piece. That’s the issue they believe will mobilize their base and let them go on offense. So everything that happens next, from press statements to floor speeches, is about setting up that narrative. The Republicans will try to pass a continuing resolution. Democrats will have to decide: do they agree, or do they shut it down?

I don’t think Schumer or Jeffries can survive politically if they don’t let their caucus go through with this. That’s the point we’ve reached. The shutdown is happening, and this is why. The date to watch is September 30 — that’s when the funding runs out. And unless a miracle happens, we’re going to see this showdown play out just like they’ve mapped it. And the messaging is already here. Elizabeth Warren said, “If Republicans want Democrats to provide votes to fund the Trump administration, they can start by restoring the health care they ripped away to finance more tax handouts for billionaires.” That’s the line. That’s the campaign.

It’s already baked in. Democrats sent a letter to Speaker Johnson and Senator Thune saying this has to be bipartisan — while knowing full well that their demands are nonstarters. It’s the same dynamic we’ve seen from Republicans in the past: throw out a demand that won’t be met, use the denial to justify the shutdown. The only difference is that Democrats usually don’t do this. But this isn’t the same Democratic Party as it used to be, now is it?

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:06:42 - Midterm Conventions

00:09:35 - Dems Shutdown Plan

00:15:34 - Update and Minneapolis Shooting

00:18:28 - Epstein

00:22:56 - CDC

00:24:33 - Mark Teixeira

00:27:01 - Interview with Howard Mortman

01:04:10- Wrap-up