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De: Justin Robert Young
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Unbiased political analysis the way you wish still existed. Justin Robert Young isn't here to tell you what to think, he's here to tell you who is going to win and why.

www.politicspoliticspolitics.comJustin Robert Young
Mundial Política y Gobierno
Episodios
  • Who is to Blame for LA? (with Rep. Greg Steube and Tom Merritt)
    Jun 11 2025

    The ongoing Los Angeles protests started with ICE raids. Not a new thing in concept, but a new thing in tone and target. We’re talking work sites, immigration courts, restaurants — not jails or prisons, not the places where even the most progressive voices might begrudgingly agree law enforcement has some claim. But California law has essentially blocked ICE from accessing inmates for deportation. So instead of going after the people most would agree should be first in line, they’re now going after people in public-facing jobs and community spaces. It's one thing to talk about enforcement — it’s another when that enforcement happens where families eat or work.

    And that’s the flashpoint. Trump said he’d deliver the biggest deportation effort in U.S. history. That promise means numbers, and numbers mean sympathy eventually bleeds in. I assumed it would come when a grandma running a family bakery got dragged out on camera. Instead, we’re here — people in court, people in the kitchen, being targeted. This was always going to happen. When you aim big, you eventually hit someone the public doesn't want you to hit. And in a city like L.A., that means people are going to show up in the streets.

    Violence, Protest, and the California Reflex

    Protesting in California isn’t unusual. It’s part of the culture. Go look at Instagram stories from anyone in L.A. or the Bay Area — if something controversial is happening, people are in the streets. It’s not performative in a bad way; it’s performative in the literal sense. It’s how people express politics. But with that comes another layer. The violence.

    There’s a slice of every major California protest that’s just there for the bricks, the Molotovs, the chaos. Whether they’re accelerationists or just anarchists, they’re consistent. And that’s the problem. The damage they do isn’t proportional — it’s cinematic. It’s what ends up on cable news and social media. And if the goal is to change hearts and minds about immigration policy, burning cop cars and smashing windows makes that harder, not easier.

    Where Are the Adults?

    This is where leadership matters. Donald Trump’s giving about 20% of his attention to this. Maybe less. He’s more engaged with Iran and China. The ICE moves feel reflexive, not strategic. They hit resistance, they escalate. Federalizing the National Guard, deploying Marines — it’s blunt-force governance. It’s power without precision. What you really need is coordination with the local officials. Instead, we’ve got a shouting match.

    Gavin Newsom says “arrest me.” Karen Bass echoes that. But neither is engaging with the reality on the ground. They’re acting like Trump is literally smashing windows. And maybe that’s useful for the national narrative, but it’s not leadership. The onus is on them — Newsom, Bass, the people closest to the problem — to take the lead in condemning the violence. But they won’t even acknowledge it. And so we spiral.

    The truth is, most of these protests are peaceful. But the few that aren’t are the ones that define the story. That was the lesson of 2020. And yet here we are again, learning it all over. It’s a noble cause, absolutely. But when you ignore the violence — when you pretend it doesn’t matter — you lose the moral high ground. And right now, nobody’s looking particularly adult in the room.

    Chapters

    00:00:00 - Intro

    00:01:33 - LA Protests

    00:18:45 - Interview with Rep. Greg Steube

    00:38:58 - Update

    00:39:26 - BBB Provisions

    00:42:25 - Recission Package

    00:48:28 - LA Protest Polling

    00:50:19 - Interview with Tom Merritt

    01:28:53 - Wrap-up



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    1 h y 34 m
  • MAGA Freezes Out Elon! The Ins and Outs of Conservative Media (with Kevin Ryan)
    Jun 5 2025
    The Big Beautiful Bill looked like it was gliding along. Sure, there were hiccups — Rand Paul grumbled about the debt ceiling, some MAGA accounts didn’t fully endorse it — but even then, it felt like controlled turbulence. Paul was performing his role as the token dissenter, the libertarian who always squawks about spending but eventually votes yes with a few tweaks. And he was already telegraphing his price: drop the debt ceiling hike and he’s in. Meanwhile, the House side wasn’t exactly throwing punches. Everyone was eyeing the Senate. If anything, it seemed like things were lining up for a classic late-June deal — messy but inevitable.Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman, who’s as wired in as it gets, detailed the emerging gap between the House and Senate versions of the bill. The Senate Finance Committee wants permanent tax breaks that sunset in the House version. They’re also pushing to modify or eliminate key Trump-era items — like the no-tax-on-overtime policy and new savings accounts for kids. There’s still no consensus on SALT either. Senate Republicans want to water down the $40,000 deduction cap that Trump himself agreed to. That would make some moderate House Republicans happy, but it could risk blowing up the agreement altogether. This is the stuff that actually matters — the policy guts that will be run past the parliamentarian and hashed out in closed-door meetings. But then, out of nowhere… Elon.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.MAGA Has a Specific TypeTwo days ago, Elon Musk posted that the big beautiful bill was a “disgusting abomination.” Then he followed it up by retweeting Rand Paul with the words “KILL the BILLL.” That’s not a passing criticism. That’s scorched-earth stuff. And when it comes from a guy like Elon — who has positioned himself as a billionaire warrior for the MAGA cause — it’s a challenge. So I did what I always do. I doomscrolled. Not for fun, but for you. To see who flinches. And here’s what I found: almost nobody followed his lead.Charlie Kirk, who had been fairly quiet on the bill, suddenly dropped a thread outlining “50 wins” from it — MAGA-branded talking points that sounded like they came from Speaker Johnson’s office. He didn’t mention Elon. He didn’t need to. The timing was the tell. He was staking a claim: this bill is ours. It’s Trump’s. And we’re backing it. Then came Catturd. If you don’t know about @Catturd2, well, that’s why you listen to this show. The dude’s a Twitter account run by a Florida musician, but in the MAGA ecosystem, his voice carries weight. When he turns, people follow. And he wasn’t with Elon either.Mike Cernovich — someone who’s ridden hard for Elon, slammed his enemies, carried water for his beefs — also pivoted. He made it clear that Trump’s agenda is what gets MAGA fired up, not fiscal purity. His message was simple: you might like Elon, but Trump’s the main character here. And look, none of these guys are policy wonks. But they are barometers. They’re not jumping to Elon’s defense. They’re lining up behind the machine.Last One In, First One OutElon is learning in real time what it means to be new money in a political world that runs on tenure and loyalty. MAGA isn’t a traditional political coalition. It’s more like a federation of tribes — influencers, donors, operators — loosely tied together by a shared orbit around Trump. And in that world, being flashy doesn’t count for much if you weren’t in the trenches in 2016 or 2020. Elon came on board when it was already a moving train. Buying Twitter, firing woke staff, bringing Trump back to the platform — all of that scored him points. But that’s not the same as being family.That’s why I keep coming back to the same thought: last one in, first one out. Musk might be the richest guy in the world. He might own the place where MAGA influencers gather. But the moment he stepped out of line, they let him drift. Not a coordinated takedown. Just silence. And silence is brutal. He’s not getting clowned like Bannon did when he got iced out. He’s just floating — a slow, silent uncoupling from the people who used to cheer his every post.Now, Mike Johnson is supposed to speak to Elon about the bill today. Maybe that call smooths things over. Maybe Russ Vought or Stephen Miller reels him back in. Maybe he gets a seat at the table, tweaks the AI language, and declares victory. But right now, he’s yelling about the CBO’s deficit projections and getting politely ignored. And the MAGA coalition — the one he thought he’d conquered — is moving on without him.Chapters(Minor mic issues during the first 3 minutes of our interview with Kevin, stick with it.)00:00:00 - Intro00:02:57 - Elon vs. the Big Beautiful Bill00:16:36 - Interview with Kevin Ryan00:41:38 - Update00:41:56 - Trump's ...
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    1 h y 40 m
  • Elon Trashes Trump's Bill! Breaking Down the Best 2024 Election Insights Yet (with Michael Cohen)
    Jun 4 2025
    Elon Musk set off a grenade in conservative circles this week, trashing the one big, beautiful bill Trump has staked so much on. He didn’t just throw shade — he called it a “disgusting abomination,” backed Rand Paul’s $5 trillion deficit claim, and waved the American flag emoji as punctuation. This wasn’t a random tweet. This was Musk choosing to detonate right as Speaker Mike Johnson is working the Senate hard to shepherd this bill into law. Johnson, for his part, did respond, claiming he had a 20-minute phone call with Musk where the topic never came up. But c’mon — that silence says a lot. Either Johnson’s not telling the whole story, or Musk baited him. Neither looks great.The timing is brutal. Musk has been a reliable MAGA ally — hosting DeSantis’s launch, reshaping Twitter into a free speech battleground, becoming a key donor and message amplifier. When he turns on your signature policy, it signals open season. And it’s not just personal. Elon hates the EV credit phase-outs in the bill. He’s furious about the AI regulatory overrides that strip individual from states like California. And his businesses, from SpaceX to Starlink, all have reasons to be wary of the bill’s broader tech oversight. So what looked like a united conservative front just fractured — and it fractured loudly. This is the part of the process where fights get public. And loud. And weird.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Iowa and the 2024 RemapIt’s moments like this that make me appreciate the Iowa caucus even more. Say what you will about the process — yes, it’s clunky, yes, it can be exclusionary — but nobody works harder at retail politics than Iowans. I’ve been in diners, VFW halls, and school gyms across that state. These are folks who grill candidates, push policy details, and actually pay attention. Compare that to South Carolina, which Biden bumped to the front of the line for the Democratic primary. That move was clearly strategic — to avoid an early embarrassment — but it came at a cost. The engagement just isn’t the same. You can walk into a bar in Manchester and get into a policy debate with a random guy sipping Busch Light. That’s not happening in Columbia.Now, there’s a window to fix it. With 2024 settled, both parties could realign the primary calendar — and they should. Let Iowa go first. Let New Hampshire follow. Put South Carolina third, Nevada fourth. Let people earn it. The current process is dominated by consultants who don’t want surprises. But surprises are good. They shake things up. They reveal flaws. They test candidates in real-time, not just in sanitized TV town halls. If you want to know who can campaign in a blizzard, let 'em face a real one. Bring back the vetting. Bring back the grit.Deal Deadlines and Tiers of ImportanceThen there’s the global chessboard. June marks the end of the 90-day tariff pause Trump announced on Liberation Day — his dramatic trade reset. That pause gave negotiators time to cut new deals, to defuse tensions. But with just weeks left, where are the deals? Trump hasn’t sealed anything. Not with China. Not with India. Not with Vietnam, or Mexico, or even Taiwan. Instead, he’s hosting white paper summits and showing off 2017 flashbacks. The branding is tight, but the substance is lagging.Look at the scoreboard. Ukraine was inching toward peace talks — then dropped a drone strike that disabled a third of Russia’s bomber fleet. That doesn’t scream “diplomatic breakthrough.” Gaza? The American-backed aid initiative is collapsing under mutual mistrust and unconfirmed shootings. We’re left trying to guess which footage is real and which claims are propaganda. And while all this plays out, the trade environment remains stuck. Japan, South Korea, Australia — they’re locked into frameworks that don’t need rewriting. The real action would be a comprehensive tariff reset with Mexico or Vietnam, or a groundbreaking semiconductor pact with Taiwan. But so far, we’re getting press releases, not treaties.So here’s how I see it. You’ve got three tiers of trade potential. Tier 1: countries that matter symbolically — Canada, UK, the Netherlands. Deals here look good but don’t move markets. Tier 2: mid-size powerhouses like South Korea, Japan, and Germany. All three matter for automotives, while South Korea and Japan both matter for their tech sectors. Finally, Tier 3 is where it counts: China, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, India. If Trump can close one deal there, he regains the upper hand. If he can’t, he enters the summer with big talk and no wins — just in time for Senate Democrats to go on offense. Time is ticking.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:10 - Elon Trashes the BBB00:08:09 - Iowa Caucus 00:11:24 - Trump Trade Tiers00:22:14 - Interview with Michael Cohen00:49:52 - Update00:50:33 - Big ...
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    1 h y 40 m
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Big fan of your show for a while and i hope youre brand of analysis and interviews finds a home here.

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