It looks like the longest shutdown in American history is on the verge of finally reaching its conclusion — and let’s be honest, it’s ending exactly how these things always end. The Democrats didn’t get what they wanted, and now everyone’s pretending this was the plan all along.

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Let’s start with the facts. Between ten and twelve Democratic senators are reportedly on board to end the shutdown with a deal that’s functionally the same as what was on the table from the beginning. That means a continuing resolution, the same one Republicans proposed, just tweaked to extend funding until January 30. The only extra carrot for Democrats is a promised vote on ACA subsidies in December. Not an actual extension — just a vote. And unless something big shifts, that vote won’t mean much in the House. It’s a pretty dismal reward for shutting down the government.

Meanwhile, we learned that some actual work happened behind the scenes. Three of the appropriations bills needed to fund the government were worked out and included in the agreement. There are a few sweeteners too — a couple tweaks on SNAP, and a guarantee to hire back people fired during the shutdown. That’s it. That’s the list. Democrats came out strong on Friday saying they wanted a year-long ACA extension tied directly to reopening the government. Republicans said no. And then, bam — Democrats packed it up within 48 hours.

If you’re a Democrat looking at this thinking “we should’ve kept fighting,” well, that’s a rough sell. Are you really telling me the smart move was to drive air travel into the ground before Thanksgiving to make a point you were never going to win? There’s just no upside. Shutdowns don’t work. They never do. Republicans have learned this over and over. You can scream about messaging all you want. You can say you’re winning, but you’re not. The polling never matters. You never get what you want.

And now, within the Democratic Party, there’s going to be some real reflection — or at least there should be. Maybe not about whether the shutdown was worth it, because the answer is clear. But about why they believed it would go differently this time. I’ll tell you what the answer isn’t: good strategy. It’s the same outcome every time. You hold out, you get tired, and you walk away with the thing that was already waiting for you on day one.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

01:22 - Shutdown

07:32 - Economy

16:54 - Elections

29:55 - Wrap-up