Ever since the US and Israel began bombing Iran, the Strait Of Hormuz has become the most watched shipping lane in the world economy. The strait itself is just a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf Of Oman, but much of the world's oil and other crucial material, such as industrial helium, flow through it. Now, after weeks of bombing and retaliation, the strait is gummed up, with hundreds of ships stranded, little traffic, and no end in sight. We're already seeing prices at the pump begin to spike, and the stock market has cooled, but according to our guest, we haven't actually felt any true material shocks, yet.

Today on the show Matt and David talk with Salvatore Mercogliano, former merchant marine, maritime history professor at Campbell University, and host of the popular What's Going on With Shipping? on Youtube. Together they break down what's happening, why the high prices we're seeing at the gas pump are only a precursor to actual shortages, and what to look for as we begin to feel the supply chain pinch.

With the federal government largely stepping back from antitrust enforcement, who's picking up the slack? California Attorney General Rob Bonta makes the case that state attorneys general are filling the void, and he's got the caseload to prove it. David and Matt speak with Bonta about his remarkable portfolio of active fights: the Ticketmaster/Live Nation trial (which the states pressed forward with after the DOJ settled), a price-fixing case against Amazon, social media addiction suits against Meta and TikTok, and a challenge to the Nexstar/TEGNA local TV merger that could give a single broadcaster control over news in 70% of American households. Bonta doesn’t shy away from describing what he sees in DC as corruption. He also has a direct message for anyone in Hollywood nervous about the Paramount/Warner Brothers investigation: it's not illegal to talk to his office and they want to hear from you.

As bombs started to fall on Iran, some Americans cashed in by placing bets on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. These bets paid out hundreds of thousands of dollars to users who almost certainly had inside information about the exact timing of the attacks. Similar bets were made on the assassination of Iran's Ayatollah, turning an act of murder into a commodity.

As these markets have come to embrace acts of violence, often rife with insider trading, Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut has introduced legislation to curb betting on government actions and similar events. His bill, Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions, or the BETS OFF Act, was introduced this past Tuesday.

Today on the show, Matt and David talk to Sen. Murphy about the problem of prediction markets, both political and moral. They also get into the war in Iran, its rudderless trajectory, and the Pentagon’s $200 billion request to continue fighting, perhaps indefinitely. Finally, they discuss how to get out of the morass we have found ourselves in as a country that seems to keep making big, bad decisions, and ask whether Trump and the war are just symptoms of a larger problem plaguing America.