Opening Bell - 08 / 04 / 2026

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire

President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military strikes against Iran just hours before his 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline, following last-minute Pakistani diplomatic efforts. Iran agreed to allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, triggering sweeping market moves across oil, equities, currencies, and crypto.

WTI Crude Oil tumbled as much as 17% to below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Oil had surged above $115 earlier in the session after reports of strikes on Iran's Kharg Island — the hub of roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports — before the diplomatic breakthrough reversed the move.

After a muted regular session where the S&P 500 eked out a 0.1% gain, and the Dow fell 0.2%, futures exploded higher post-ceasefire announcement. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.2% to 6,804, Nasdaq futures rallied 2.7%, and Dow futures surged 2%, as investors priced in hopes of a durable peace deal and resumption of Gulf oil flows.

Spot gold climbed 2.5% to $4,821 per ounce, its highest level since March 19, as the weaker dollar made bullion cheaper for foreign holders. Silver surged 4.7% to $77 per ounce, while platinum gained 2.5%, with all three precious metals benefiting from the risk-on shift and dollar softness following the ceasefire.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee wraps up its meeting today and will announce its decision at 10:00 AM. The market expects the RBI's MPC to maintain the repo rate at 5.25%.

A neutral stance is likely to persist, balancing global risks such as tensions in West Asia with domestic liquidity support, and avoiding further cuts unless growth falters.

The Nifty rose 155 points yesterday to close at 23,123, marking its fourth consecutive gain.

The Indian rupee extended its four-session winning run, gaining 5 paise to 93.01, fueled by lower crude prices, domestic equity recovery, and RBI-driven unwinding of bank arbitrage positions.

Nifty has closed above its 10-day EMA for the first time since the U.S.-Iran-Israel War erupted, also topping last week's high. The short-term trend has reversed, with resistance near 23,800-24000 and support at yesterday's low of 22,719.

Indian markets are poised for a strong surge at the open following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and boosting investors' risk appetite.