No Revenue Growth, No Dividend Growth
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No Revenue Growth, No Dividend Growth
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Consumer staples look reliable with strong brands, steady cash flow, and good yields. But dividends can’t outrun revenue forever, and across this sector the growth engine has stalled.
In this episode, Greg begins with a quick recap of how 2025 has unfolded so far, highlighting strong income growth for the model portfolio, a handful of growth names driving market performance, and value strategies continuing to lag. From that backdrop, he digs into the disconnect between the appearance of safety in consumer staples and the underlying fundamentals that truly support dividend growth.
Using Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), General Mills ($GIS), Colgate ($CL), Procter & Gamble ($PG), and Church & Dwight ($CHD) as case studies, Greg shows how companies with high ROIC and defensive business models can still become no-growth traps. These companies were once consistent outperformers with impressive dividend histories, but the economy evolves and so have their growth profiles.
Topics Covered:
03:05 – Comparing dividend growth to the S&P 500
05:43 – Investing styles cycle and chasing rarely works
07:07 – Surface numbers can be misleading
11:00 – Kimberly-Clark: attractive metrics masking zero growth
16:42 – General Mills: high yield but barely growing
18:36 – Colgate: excellent margins, slow dividend progression
19:58 – Procter & Gamble: financial strength, but limited growth
21:03 – Church & Dwight: a past outlier that doesn’t meet our targets
23:57 – Kimberly-Clark’s planned Kenvue acquisition
29:36 – The mosaic of evidence investors should pay attention to
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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
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