Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment

Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment Insights from Paul Fiorilla, Director of U.S. Research at Yardi Matrix Paul Fiorilla offers a data-driven view of today’s commercial real estate (CRE) landscape using the vast resources he has at his disposal at Yardi. While market sentiment may be growing more optimistic, Fiorilla acknowledges investors should separate short-term mood from long-term fundamentals. His perspective, rooted in close analysis of multifamily data and macro conditions, is both pragmatic and cautionary: yes, there’s capital on the sidelines and deals are getting done but many investors may be misreading the durability of recent tailwinds and underestimating latent risks. Short-Term Confidence, Long-Term Industry Real estate is an inherently long-term, illiquid asset class yet, much of the current market behavior appears to be anchored in short-term confidence (and short term memories). That dissonance should give investors pause. While macroeconomic shocks like tariffs, interest rate hikes, and political uncertainty do not immediately register in quarterly CRE data, their effects compound over time. Investor sentiment, meanwhile, remains buoyant. Debt markets have resumed activity, stock indices are back near prior highs, and many assume the worst is behind us. But the lagging nature of real estate data means we're still months away from fully seeing the impacts of recent fiscal and geopolitical developments. Multifamily Fundamentals: A Shifting Landscape Fiorilla addresses the fundamentals of the multifamily sector, noting that demand has remained strong in recent years, but the distribution of that demand is shifting. Rent growth is no longer universal. Over the past 15 months, metros in the Midwest and Northeast, markets like Chicago and New York, have consistently posted moderate, steady rent growth. In contrast, high-growth Sunbelt cities such as Austin, Atlanta, Nashville, and Salt Lake City are experiencing flat to negative rent trends. What’s driving this bifurcation is primarily supply. In oversupplied markets, absorption hasn’t kept pace with new deliveries. Despite a sharp national decline in starts, down approximately 40% year-over-year, the existing pipeline remains heavy. Nationally, over 1.2 million units are either in lease-up or under construction. In high-growth markets, deliveries will continue at elevated levels for the next several years. Some cities may see 12–15% added to their multifamily inventory by 2027. Fiorilla underscores that while national numbers suggest a tapering of supply, the local realities are more complex. Markets that arguably need more housing, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago for example, are seeing similar slowdowns in new development as oversaturated markets. The result is a continued misalignment between where capital is building and where it’s most needed. The Waning Tailwinds of Demand Fiorilla also points to softening demand drivers that may soon undermine current assumptions. Over the past several years, demand has been supported by several powerful tailwinds: robust job growth, high immigration, and pandemic-era trends such as household formation and suburban relocation. But these are now tapering. Net immigration, while still meaningful, is slowing. Job growth has begun to decelerate. Moreover, federal employment cuts and delays in private-sector hiring – driven by political and fiscal uncertainty – are contributing to a weakening outlook for household formation. These are not necessarily signs of imminent distress, but they do suggest that the extraordinary absorption rates of 2021–2022 will be difficult to sustain. As Fiorilla puts it, “the risks are to the downside.” He’s not forecasting a collapse but cautions against overreliance on recent performance when underwriting future deals, particularly in light of ongoing supply pressure. Policy Risk and the Fragility of Subsidized Housing Among the more underappreciated risks in the market, Fiorilla emphasizes policy risk, especially in affordable and subsidized housing. He notes that while programs like LIHTC and Opportunity Zones appear safe, others such as Section 8 are under pressure. Of particular concern are proposals to convert these programs into state-administered block grants. While this may seem like a technocratic shift, it would represent a material change for property owners. Federal guarantees would be replaced by varying state-level funding regimes, increasing payment risk and reducing the predictability that underpins underwriting in the subsidized housing sector. For owners reliant on these programs, even modest payment disruptions could be “catastrophic,” he notes. Interest Rate Volatility: The Real Pain Point Turning to capital markets, Fiorilla distinguishes between the level of interest rates and the pace at which they change. Today...