Friday 26th September 2025

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Donald Trump came out heavy on tariffs against China, supposedly to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, but mostly to offset America’s big trade deficit. Last year that deficit with China was close to $300 billion, more than a third of the US’s total negative trade balance. Since then, tariffs have been reduced in two successive 90-day truces, the current one due to expire in early November. What then? Phil talks to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal. He reckons the can will be kicked further down the road. |s that because the US needs China more than China needs them? Could China continue to grow if the US market dries up, particularly given the low levels of consumption in their domestic market? And what’s the role of the PBoC in all this? Monetary policy seems limited, and fiscal policy hasn't been that effective. Part of the solution is to rein in the subsidies of businesses by local authorities as part of a move against ‘involution’.

Next week Phil talks to NAB CEO Andrew Irvine. This is your chance to put a question to him directly on this podcast. Whether it’s on the economy, on banking, on management or on NAB itself, send your question (written or as a sound file attachment) to morningcall@nab.com.au. But be quick!

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Thursday 25th September 2025

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Unexpectedly positive data out of the US, including an upward revision to GDP, has push ed equities lower, and adds to the question of when does the Fed need to cut. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the data and examine the (still very varied) views of Fed speakers. It depends on the inflation data, of course, out later today. But if growth is picking up, if the job market isn’t weakening as much as first thought, could inflation pick up faster?

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Thursday 25th September 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Aussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation. Taylor says this will have a material impact on the quarterly inflation print. As a result, it is changing its forecasts for rate cuts. Whereas the expectation was for moves down in November and February, now it’ll be well into the new year before the first cut. Phil asks, can we be sure the next move will be down?

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