The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There are some known unknowns about how this will impact the economic data but there are lots of unknown unknowns also. In this episode will shed light on what it means for the economy, Fed, and bond market.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy
• Michael Reid (Economics), Senior US Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed, and how low terminal rates might go. As the outlook for global central bank policies continues to evolve, particularly the Fed, it could have far-reaching implications for global asset markets.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy): Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy): Head of US Rates Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. From the Bank of England's hawkish cuts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious easing, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amid market pressures, we delve into the similarities, differences, and uncertainties shaping monetary policy decisions across these regions.

Participants:

• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts