MORE Soybeans Sold to China - Were Trump and Bessent Telling the Truth??

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🌱 Grain Markets

China returned to the U.S. market on Monday with a flash sale of 264,000 mt (10 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
Despite the headline, soybean futures ended lower, with the Mar ’26 contract down nearly 5 cents to settle near $11.11.
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 10.15 mmt (accumulated export sales plus Monday’s flash sale). Roughly half of the 3.1 mmt sold to unknown destinations will likely be tagged to China, pushing total sales to ~11.7 mmt, very close to the White House’s 12 mmt target.
President Trump’s recent comments suggest China could ultimately push current marketing-year purchases toward 20 mmt.

🚢 Export Inspections

Corn: 1.3 mmt (51 mil bu)
⬆️ 14% vs prior week | ⬇️ 4.2% vs last year

Soybeans: 1.1 mmt (42 mil bu)
⬇️ 14% vs prior week | ⬆️ 3.5% vs last year

China accounted for ~66% of total inspections. Soybean shipments to China included 3 PNW cargoes and 9 Gulf cargoes.

Wheat: 580,130 mt (21 mil bu)
⬆️ 76% vs prior week | ⬆️ 1.7% vs last year

📊 USDA Preview

The USDA will release its Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00am CST.

Expectations:
U.S. corn ending stocks: unchanged
U.S. soybean ending stocks: slightly lower
U.S. wheat ending stocks: modestly lower
World stocks: mostly unchanged
Brazil corn & soybean production: likely revised higher

🛢️ Soybean Oil & Crush

Soybean oil rallied to its highest level in over six months following news that the U.S. and India reached a trade agreement that would reduce or eliminate duties on several U.S. ag products, including soybean oil.
India is the world’s largest edible oil importer, buying roughly 16 mmt annually. Prices could strengthen further once the agreement is finalized, though a record Brazilian soybean crop and rapidly advancing harvest may limit upside.

🚜 Farm Economy

Farm bankruptcies rose sharply in 2025, climbing 46% year over year to 315 filings, marking the second straight year of increases.
The Midwest and Southeast led the way, with Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska posting the highest totals. Between 2017 and 2024, roughly 160,000 U.S. farm operations exited the industry. With losses expected to persist across most crop sectors, bankruptcies and farm exits are likely to increase again in 2026.