MBFS Quick Hits: Reviewing 2025 Credit Union Predictions with Jeff Lyons

Credit union predictions take center stage as Mark Ritter hosts Jeff Lyons on Credit Union Conversations to review their 2025 forecasts. The MBFS leaders analyze their interest rate forecasts, NCUA board changes, and tariff-negotiation predictions with a candid self-assessment. Throughout this engaging review, they explore Federal Reserve rate cuts, consumer lending trends, commercial lending stability, and the challenges facing credit unions in the auto loan market as vehicle prices surpass $50,000. They examine the accuracy of housing market forecasts and the outcomes of budget deal negotiations, while acknowledging mixed results in their prognostication.

WHAT YOU WILL LEARN IN THIS EPISODE:

✅ How NCUA board changes and Supreme Court cases continue to impact credit union regulatory oversight, with the FTC lawsuit setting precedent for future administrative decisions affecting the credit union industry.

✅ Why the auto loan market faces unprecedented challenges as average new vehicle prices exceed $50,000, causing consumers to hold vehicles longer and fundamentally shifting credit union business strategies.

✅ The accuracy of inflation predictions and credit card delinquency forecasts, including how CPI data at 2.7% contradicts consumer experiences of rising costs in everyday purchases.

✅ How commercial lending stability diverged from consumer lending trends in 2025, creating a bifurcated lending environment that requires different strategic approaches for credit unions.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Mark Ritter and Jeff Lyons review their year-end credit union predictions for 2025 and discuss their accuracy

00:38 NCUA board changes discussion covering the firing of Democratic board members and predictions about Supreme Court cases impacting regulatory authority

01:33 Interest rate forecasts review, revealing they missed by 25 basis points and tariff negotiations analysis examining how tariffs became a negotiating tool

07:07 Auto loan market and consumer lending trends, highlighting the average cost of a vehicle and the lending environment affecting credit union business

09:06 Discussion of credit card debt to be determined in February and March, and some football talk: Penn State and Rutgers

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

💲Tariff negotiations proved to be primarily a negotiating tool rather than a permanent policy, with initial concerns about widespread economic impact diminishing by year-end as countries eagerly negotiated with the U.S., validating the prediction that tariff discussions would fade from headlines.

💲Budget deal negotiations successfully extended and codified existing tax rate extensions rather than allowing rates to sunset, demonstrating how political necessity drives compromise even in divided government scenarios. However, healthcare insurance rates remain unresolved heading into the new year.

💲Housing market forecast accuracy was mixed as hot markets experienced price corrections while other areas remained stable.

ABOUT THE GUEST:

Jeff Lyons - LinkedIn

RESOURCES MENTIONED:

Mark Ritter - Website

Mark Ritter - LinkedIn

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Credit Union Conversations, Mark...