MB509: Market Outlook - Investing in 2024-25 vs. 2026 (Different Risk Profile) - With Michael Blank

In this solo episode, Michael Blank breaks down what really happened in multifamily during 2025 and what investors should expect in 2026. He unpacks supply and demand trends, rent growth, interest rate expectations, and the affordability crisis shaping renter behavior. While the last few years have been challenging, Michael explains why 2026 is likely a year of stability that sets the stage for long-term growth—and why today’s risk-adjusted returns may be better than they’ve been in years.

Key Takeaways

1. 2025 was a year of absorption, not growth — record demand was offset by an unprecedented wave of new supply, keeping rents flat to down.
2. New construction is falling sharply, with permits dropping and high interest rates making most projects uneconomical.
3. Affordability favors renting, as buying a home now costs significantly more than renting, supporting long-term rental demand.
4. 2026 consensus outlook is stability with modest rent growth, likely around 2%, setting up normalized growth in 2027 and beyond.
5. Interest rates are expected to be flat to slightly down, a meaningful shift from the uncertainty of the past three years.
6. Lower leverage and better pricing improve risk-adjusted returns, making today’s environment healthier than the frothy market of 2021–2022

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For full episode show notes visit: https://themichaelblank.com/podcasts/session509/