In late March, Brown-Forman Corporation and Pernod Ricard confirmed they were in talks about a potential merger that would bring together giant brands like Jack Daniels, Herradura, Woodford Reserve, Jameson, Beefeater, Absolut, and Chivas Regal. It would be a formidable lineup, which in terms of spirits sales would rival the scale of Diageo – long the largest spirits business in the history of the universe. Equity analyst Richard Withagen of Kepler Cheuvreux joins us to discuss the details and outlook for this blockbuster deal.

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Many investors have abandoned the world of early-stage alcohol startups, leaving a gaping hole in the market. There is less money available to fuel startup growth, and potential buyers are demanding both scale and profitability, extending the time to achieve an exit and reshaping the optimal strategy for building a brand. Over the last five years, Jason Sherman (Top Shelf) and Nick Papanicolaou (No Sleep Beverage) each helped found venture capital firms specializing in alcohol. In this episode we explore where they see opportunity, what they consider when making an investment, and what buyers of the future will ultimately be looking for.

In this episode we discuss:

• The metrics that startups and investors should prioritize when measuring success.
• The current capital environment for early-stage startups and how to build a brand with way less money than before.
• Where the corporate VC model succeeded and why it ultimately failed to survive.
• Where innovation for large firms will come from in the future.

Notable time stamps:

2:23 – Jason and Nick share their background and the investment thesis behind their firms.

17:11 – How to measure velocity: The key metric for potential investors.

20:30 – The impact of the general environment on investor sentiment and capital availability for independent brands.

41:00 - A corporate VC post‑mortem and the future of innovation at large alcohol suppliers.

Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Fresh from their rather somber state-of-the-industry presentation, SipSource analysts Danny Brager and Dale Stratton help identify whether there are any areas of growth and promise in the wine and spirits business. Topics include:

• The performance of wine and spirits depletions in 2025 and the outlook for 2026.
• The surprising resilience of RTD growth rates.
• Prosecco's continuing strong performance.
• The wine industry trying more innovative marketing strategies.
• The importance of finding the right packaging formats.
• If consumers actually want low-alcohol products or if they want low-calorie and low-sugar products.

Have a question, qualm, or story to tell? Reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@rabobank.com

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.