Labor, Not Inflation, Drives CRE Cycles

My guest today is Ryan Severino, Chief Economist & Head of Research at private equity real estate shop, BGO ($89 billion of AUM), who cuts through the macro noise with a practical roadmap for real estate sponsors and their investors. Driving Thesis: A new administration: slower immigration, volatile trade policy, and accelerating AI. These three forces are reshaping growth, hiring, space demand, and cap rates. If you’re waiting for “inflation down → all clear,” you’ll miss the real drivers. Why it matters: The biggest hit was capital-markets math. If the Fed guides toward neutral (where the Fed’s actions neither stimulate nor restrains economic growth) and the long end eases (10/30 year treasury yields come down), origination, transactions, and pricing can recover faster than fundamentals. Durable investment returns still come down to labor, not inflation headlines. Five questions Ryan answers: Today’s savvy investors should be looking at what? What is the cleanest macro signal for CRE? Tariffs vs. uncertainty; what’s worse? Rate cuts: boon or “sugar rush”? Where will AI hit property first? Takeaways for sponsors & LPs: Underwrite to jobs, not CPI (inflation) chatter. Get hyper-local; this is a geography-led cycle. Favor durable demand pools (workforce housing). Expect a capital-markets thaw before a fundamental boom. Treat uncertainty as baseline; build flexibility into debt and expand equity capital sources. If you’re separating signal from noise, this episode re-anchors the playbook: watch payrolls, heed forward guidance, underwrite locally, own real demand. According to ChatGPT’s analysis of Ryan’s historical predictions, he has ‘called the cycle's shape better than most; no overreaction to inflation, no premature recession warnings, and consistent recognition of labor market strength and capital flow dynamics. That’s a rare track record, especially in a market where even top-tier macro shops have missed big turns.’ Ryan’s the real deal – hardly any wonder he’s Chief Economist at an $89 billion AUM shop. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: [e-mail] Call: 213-761-1000