Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, returns to Kopi Time to walk us through various geopolitical flashpoints. We begin with the US’s recent intervention in Venezuela and the cohesiveness of the strategy at play. Heavy on economic coercion and light on ground-level involvement, to what extent US can achieve control on the region remains to be seen, although the goal of reducing China’s influence is being achieved to some extent. We then touch on what lies ahead for other central and Latin American leaders who are not aligned with the White House. Next, Greenland, where Professor Haykel does not see military intervention, nor does he see the fraying of the NATO. We then move on to the various moving parts in the Middle-East, from Iran to Saudi Arabia to UAE to Israel to Syria. There are few academics like Professor Haykel who can parse through these complex issues with such ease. A tour de force.

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In the year’s first podcast, we examine the factors that could help overcome ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty, helping achieve trend growth outcomes in the US, China, and Singapore. The year has begun under the shadow of a highly assertive US pushing its hegemonic agenda. Both externally and domestically, Donald Trump has taken a largely imperialist posture, subject to hardly any checks from the other arms of the government. His goals include achieving energy and rare earth material security, forcing neighbours in the Americas into acquiescence, curtailing China’s power, and supporting right wing regimes worldwide. We are however doubtful that his actions would secure the House of Representatives in November. Beyond the political dynamic, short of an AI bubble burst, the US economy is poised to grow in line with trend this year, led by consumption. A weak job market and easing inflation pressure would keep the Fed cutting the policy rate more, drama around Fed Chair notwithstanding. We worry about the erosion of institutional integrity in the US, but the ramifications are in the medium term, with investors likely to remain enthusiastic about holding US assets in the near term. On China, we recognise both its struggles with the property sector and the tailwind emanating from an impressive tech wave. The spillover from China’s expanding manufacturing base is positive for trade-oriented economies, contrary to the narrative of predatory excess capacity. On Singapore, we see a number of levers in place to propel growth this year and beyond.

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Fiscal slippage, lower economic growth, sticky inflation, weaker dollar, steeper yield curve, financial instability; these are the key prognostications of Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar in our year-end podcast. President of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Sri is a deep thinker on macro trade strategies, and his forecasting track record is outstanding. Going into 2026, he is bearish both stocks and bonds, long vols and gold, and bearish the USD. He worries that the inevitable bursting of the AI-bubble and sticky inflation would cause stagflation and financial instability risks in the US next year. He is also concerned about the erosion of institutional strength in the US, from the central bank to the treasury to the statistical agencies. An unambiguously bleak outlook.

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