Jobs Cool, Chips Rule and Positioning While the Dollar Drifts

Markets absorbed a brief U.S. government shutdown, ongoing fourth‑quarter earnings, and fresh readings from the Institute for Supply Management: Services stayed in expansion while Manufacturing showed a tentative uptick. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll report was delayed, other labor signals softened—job openings slipped to 6.5 million, weekly claims rose to 231,000, and the ADP private payrolls tally was only 22,000. Equity leadership shifted as AI pressure hit software stocks while investors favored tangible, cash‑flowing businesses and added non‑U.S. exposure. Credit stayed orderly—investment‑grade spreads widened slightly and high‑yield widened a bit more—while the riskiest tier gained a little over 1% year‑to‑date. Treasury yields eased; the European Central Bank and Bank of England held policy rates steady.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

00:01:35 — Week setup: shutdown ends, Q4 earnings, Services up, Manufacturing perks up.

00:03:10 — Jobs picture softens; big payrolls report pushed to next week; thoughts on the U.S. Dollar.

00:08:36 — AI tool sparks global software selloff; chips seen as enablers.

00:15:29 — Credit mostly calm; risk appetite cools a bit this week.

00:21:07 — Super Bowl picks and quick Ohio note to close.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: Who Is Kevin Warsh and What Does His Appointment Mean for the Fed's Next Chapter?

Read: Comprehensive Key Numbers

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