Japan Refuses Trade Deal with US Over Trump Tariffs Amid Escalating Economic Tensions and Potential Growth Impact

Welcome to Japan Tariff News and Tracker. In today's update, Japan is taking a firm stance in trade negotiations with the United States, declaring it won't reach any deal unless all new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are thoroughly reviewed.

Japan's top negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, made this clear as he returned from the second round of ministerial-level talks in Washington just days ago. Akazawa, who serves as Japan's economic revitalization minister, told reporters that Japan has pressed the United States to reconsider its series of tariffs, emphasizing they cannot reach an agreement without proper addressing of these issues.

The situation has intensified with the implementation of a 25% tariff on auto parts that took effect on May 11, prompting Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to express strong disappointment. Ishiba has stressed that Japan continues to negotiate on "all" U.S. tariffs, including those on automobiles, steel, and aluminum.

Since returning to the White House in January, President Trump has imposed 25% levies on all imported steel and aluminum, plus 25% tariffs on automobiles produced outside the United States. Additionally, Trump announced so-called reciprocal tariffs amounting to 24% for Japan, including a baseline tariff of 10%. The extra portion is currently on hold as negotiations continue.

The contrast between U.S. and Japanese approaches to auto tariffs is striking. While the U.S. has raised tariffs to 25% on imported vehicles, Japan maintains a zero-tariff policy on passenger vehicles, theoretically creating an open market for foreign automakers.

This aggressive tariff policy is having economic consequences. According to estimates, Trump's tariffs may cost Japan 0.8% in economic growth. The Nikkei dropped by close to 9% in a single day on April 7, and Prime Minister Ishiba has called Trump's tariff offensive a "national crisis."

The overall U.S. average effective tariff rate stands at 17.8% as of May 12, the highest since 1934, according to The Budget Lab at Yale. After consumption shifts, the average tariff rate is projected to settle at 16.4%, still the highest since 1937.

We'll continue to monitor these developments as Japan navigates these challenging trade waters with the United States.

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