Is the Economy O(k)? National 401(k) Day and a K-shaped Recovery

In this week's episode, we discuss the Beige Book Report, and three employment reports including fresh numbers from a weaker-than-expected report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We also touch on the policies and politics bedeviling the Federal Reserve, and the likelihood of rate cuts later this month. As always, we analyze how all of these factors affect the equity and bond markets. Finally, happy National 401(k) Day! See today’s resources below to help you educate and celebrate.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:45 – The four reports driving economic activity this week: the Beige Book report, initial unemployment claims, the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the eagerly-expected BLS Employment Situation report.

05:21 – The weak BLS report further fuels expectations for a September rate cut, with the odds of bigger or more frequent cuts increasing.

07:28 – A look into the economy’s impact on the stock market, and vice versa, and the k-shaped economy of 401(k) haves and have-nots.

09:19– Treasuries have rallied on the jobs report, with some calling it a “jobs recession.”

11:20 – We discuss the goings-on at the Federal Reserve, including Stephen Miran’s confirmation hearing for Fed Governor and Scott Bessent’s alleged interviews for the next Fed Chair.

14:11 – In the world of equities, cyclicals and small cap stocks are ascending as mega-cap tech stocks had a slower week.

18:45 – Concluding thoughts on the still-present threat of tariffs impacting the economy, and what to do with your portfolio now.

National 401(k) Day Resources

Retirement Advice

Should I Still Worry About Inflation’s Impact on My Retirement Plan?

The Key 401(k) Pooled Employer Plan

Additional Resources

9/18 Webinar: Key Wealth's National Call - AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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