Is War Good for the Economy?

In this wide-ranging chat, Shray plays devil’s advocate while Deepak unpacks why conflict often jump-starts economies, how India’s defence binge could spill over into everything from lithium mining to 10-minute groceries, and why a 70-hour work-week isn’t the villain Twitter thinks it is.

Returns—not patriotism—ultimately determine whether CapEx endures, a reality visible in the economics of fracking, rare-earth extraction, and the three types of “crazy” investors who fund long-shot bets: governments, bondholders, and VCs. India’s manufacturing ambitions have long been stifled by outdated labour laws and missed opportunities, but we may now be staring at a rare, once-in-a-generation window of opportunity. While defence and industrial stocks might seem richly valued, there's still plenty of runway—especially if order books start to triple. That said, the journey is fraught with risks: a sluggish judicial system, bureaucratic inertia, and our national knack for fumbling promising leads. For investors, the challenge is knowing when to play defence and when to swing for the fences in a market that increasingly rewards conviction.

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00:00 - Intro
01:09 - Wars & the Economy
12:56 - Return on Investment - Driver of returns
25:28 - Does CapEx without justification work?
35:30 - Why don't we manufacture in India anyway?
47:33 - Labor laws - Why do they exist?
55:20 - Is the rally already priced in?
01:11:18 - What’s the downside risk?
01:15:49 - Where do you invest now?
01:19:03 - Trump, 70 Hours & Self-Reliance!
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