Is Texas Turning Blue? 2026 Primary Turnout Surge + Polling Truth feat. Sarah Steeby

In this episode of The Right Idea, Brian Phillips and Derek Cohen sit down with Sarah Steeby, Executive Director of the Neapolitan Institute, to unpack the massive Democratic primary turnout surge in Texas (first time in 24 years Democrats outvoted Republicans — ~2.3M vs ~2.16M votes), the hype around James Talarico's Senate bid, Republican challenges uniting the base, and whether Texas is really "turning blue" in 2026.

Sarah shares unbiased polling insights on the economy, immigration, Hispanic voters, transgender issues in sports/bathrooms (77% Texas opposition), the 10-10-80 voter split, and why fundamentals — not vibes — win elections. We also cover open statewide seats, school choice, border security, moms/young families as a key demographic, and national trends like Iran and the economy heading into November.

Is the Democratic enthusiasm real, or will Republican turnout rebound in the general? Don't miss this data-driven breakdown of Texas politics in 2026!

Timestamps:

• 00:00 – Welcome
• 01:13 – Hot Take: March Madness VERY Early Previews
• 05:27 – Sarah Steeby joins: Neapolitan Institute polling trends & Is Texas turning blue?
• 06:05 – Fundamentals that matter: Economy, immigration, cultural issues
• 07:40 – Democrat exuberance vs. Republican apathy — independent factors?
• 09:01 – Trump base energy, traditional GOP voters, and party unity challenge
• 10:24 – James Talarico effect: Charm vs. policy reality
• 12:32 – Early polling traps & why November changes everything
• 14:54 – California transplants, misunderstood Hispanic voters & strong borders
• 18:02 – Empowering parents: "Who decides?" messaging for Hispanics & beyond
• 20:45 – Top issues for open seats: Economy, personal finances, national security
• 23:30 – Moms of young families as a rising force in Texas politics
• 25:51 – Reaching the 80% in the middle: Common-sense, respectful solutions
• 30:22 – True moderates in politics — can anyone crack the code?
• 34:10 – Why common sense doesn't raise money + media/data misalignment
• 36:04 – Open statewide races, Democrat legislative records exposed
• 44:46 – Prospects for substantive policy debates in 2026
• 46:22 – National outlook: Economy, Iran, and midterm risks for Republicans

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