Is China Angry About the US/Venezuela Situation?? Trade Truce at Risk??

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🌎 Geopolitics & Oil
The U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela.

For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply.

President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy.

Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power.

We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including:
Cuba / Soviet Union (1962)
Grenada / Soviet Union (1983)
Panama / Noriega (1989)

🚢 Export Inspections
USDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week.
Soybeans: 980,518 mt
Up from the prior week
Down vs. last year
China accounted for roughly 40%

Corn: 1.2 mmt
Lower vs. last week
Strongly higher vs. last year

Wheat: 183,305 mt
Below expectations
Sharply lower week-over-week and year-over-year

Marketing-year-to-date shipments:
Soybeans: sharply behind last year
Corn: well ahead
Wheat: modestly higher

📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25.
Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyer
Corn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by Mexico
Wheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination

🌱 Brazil Crop Update
StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso.
Conab: 177.6 mmt
USDA: 175 mmt
Based on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season.
Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying.

💰 Fund Positioning
The CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data.
Funds continued selling corn and soybeans
Soybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-November
Small net buying was seen in SRW wheat

🥇 Metals & Macro
Gold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.