Episode 135 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines the fate of victorious rebel groups after civil wars—and why some remain loyal to post-war governments while others fragment, defect, or even overthrow the regimes they helped create.

Our guests begin by exploring the core puzzle: conventional wisdom suggests that decisive victory produces stability, yet evidence shows that in more than half of cases, post-war militaries face crises within a decade. They then explain how wartime pressures shape the organizational choices of rebel groups—particularly the relationship between political leaders and field commanders—and how those choices carry forward into peacetime governance. Drawing on cases from Zimbabwe, Côte d’Ivoire, and across Africa, the discussion highlights why power-sharing arrangements often fail, why commitment problems undermine loyalty, and how the interests of commanders, rulers, and foreign partners diverge. Finally, the conversation turns to the limits of external security assistance, and what policymakers and practitioners should consider when working with post-conflict militaries.

Dr. Philip A. Martin is an assistant professor at George Mason University. His research specializes in political violence and civil wars, peacebuilding, and African politics. His article, Insurgent Armies: Military Obedience and State Formation after Rebel Victory, serves as the anchor for today’s conversation.

Brigadier General Allen J. Pepper is the commanding general of U.S. Army Security Assistance Command. A career foreign area officer with extensive experience across Africa, he has served in Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic.

Episode 135 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast kicks off a four-part series on the future of war, pairing renowned author and futurist August Cole with senior special operations leaders to explore how tomorrow’s conflicts may unfold.

Our conversation centers on Cole’s short story Safe Harbor II, which envisions Marine Raiders operating in a near-future environment saturated with proxy terrorism, relentless information warfare, and AI-enabled surveillance. The story highlights how SOF teams will grapple with great-power adversaries who weaponize terrorist groups to justify intervention, forcing small units to fight not only for tactical advantage but also to control the strategic narrative.

Joining us for this episode is Major General Peter Huntley, Commander of Marine Forces Special Operations Command (MARSOC). Together with August Cole, MajGen Huntley discusses how MARSOC is adapting to new technologies, why trust with partners remains a timeless necessity, and what qualities will continue to define Raiders in the decades ahead. The discussion underscores that while future operators will be hyper-enabled with drones, sensors, and advanced AI, the human dimension of warfare—trust, adaptability, and leadership—remains constant.

At the conclusion of the episode, listeners will hear a narrated excerpt from Safe Harbor II, immersing them in the dilemmas Marine Raiders may face in the conflicts of 2040.

Ben Jebb and Don Edwards are the hosts for this episode. Please reach out to Ben and Don with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.

Episode 134 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast explores the rising risks of conflict over Taiwan and how the United States and its allies can strengthen deterrence against Beijing.

Our guests begin by assessing why deterrence is faltering globally, from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and how those events inform Chinese perceptions of American resolve. They then discuss the stakes of a Taiwan contingency—economic, ideological, and strategic—highlighting the island’s critical role in global semiconductor supply chains and as a thriving democracy on China’s periphery. The conversation turns to the balance of forces across the Strait, Taiwan’s defense culture, and the full spectrum of Chinese coercive activity, from gray-zone operations to potential military invasion. Finally, our guests offer recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and partners like Japan, Australia, and Europe can bolster deterrence before conflict breaks out.

Matt Pottinger is a distinguished national security professional who served as U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor from 2019 to 2021. He is the editor of The Boiling Moat, a new volume analyzing deterrence and security dynamics across the Taiwan Strait.

Matt Turpin is a former U.S. National Security Council Director for China and a retired U.S. Army officer. He is currently a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, where his research focuses on U.S.-China relations and strategic competition.

Ben Jebb and Katherine Michaelson are the hosts for this episode. Please reach out to Ben and Katherine with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.