Investing in Shrinking Population
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Investing in Shrinking Population
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We are accustomed to the idea of growth. We love it when the wind is at our back and progress is effortless. We have experienced a lifetime of growth. If a growing market is an underlying assumption, then most people are unaware that they are operating with the assumption of growth. Growth becomes a law of nature, a little like gravity.
What would change in your strategy if you needed to win in a shrinking market?
Canada experienced the first major drop in population this past quarter.
Outside of a slight drop during the height of the pandemic, this quarter is the first time that Canada’s population has declined in at least the past eight decades.
The trend is not limited to Canada. The US administration has set much more stringent immigration policies over the past year. The policies continue to evolve with citizens from a total of 39 countries now barred from entering the US, even as visitors. This is largely a reaction to the near open-doors policy of the previous administration.
The US and Canada are not a strangers to shrinking population. Internal migration has caused population to shrink. The gains in the sunbelt have been at the expense of loss in the rust belt.
Detroit has lost more than 50% of its population since the 1970’s.
Cleveland has lost 60% of its population since the 1950’s.
Immigration is the pathway to maintaining population and to maintaining economic growth. I’m hopeful that these reductions are a short term reaction to periods of excessive growth and that both countries the US and Canada return to a more normalized immigration policy that recognizes the significant necessity and long term benefit that comes from a functioning immigration policy.
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