Inside The State Of Beer With NBWA Economist Lester Jones

Beer volumes are down, dollars are soft, and the usual playbook isn’t working.

We brought back Lester Jones, chief economist at the National Beer Wholesalers Association, to cut through the noise with data, plain talk, and a clear plan for getting back to growth.

Lester breaks down what’s structural—demographics, consumption occasions, and channel mix—and what’s cyclical—slower hiring, fewer hours worked, and sticky inflation—and shows how those forces collide to shape beer demand in 2025.

We unpack the Beer Purchasers’ Index and why distributor sentiment remains cautious, then dig into category dynamics where cider and FMBs stabilize, below-premium holds steady, and draft shows surprising resilience as on-premise accounts multiply.

Lester argues the rubber band of pricing elasticity finally snapped: years of CPI-tracking increases met a year with little price and falling volume.

The fix isn’t blind discounting; it’s surgical price investment, smarter pack-price architecture, and a return to safety and velocity on shelves.

We also reframe on-premise: consumers want to socialize away from home, but aggressive pricing suppresses rounds.

The antidote is occasion-first programming—happy hour value, low- and no-alcohol that extends the visit, and draft that delivers ritual, freshness, and better margins.

Demographics get a rethink too. Instead of shouting at Gen Z, empower the 60-plus cohort—the wealthiest, most social audience—and design life-stage occasions that everyone wants to join.

On competition, we sort through RTDs, seltzers, and hemp beverages, noting where shelves will rationalize and where beer’s strengths—lagers with place cues, approachable ABV, and draft experiences—can win.

We also address policy turbulence around tariffs and taxes, urging unified advocacy while businesses adapt sourcing and operations to protect margins.

If you care about winning the next quarter without losing the next year, this conversation delivers a grounded strategy: price with purpose, simplify to velocity, program the on-premise, and market to moments that bring people together.

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