India Trade Deal: White House Rhetoric or WIN for Farmers??

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🇺🇸🇮🇳 US–India Trade Deal
The Trump administration announced a trade agreement with India that reduces tariffs on Indian imports into the US from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to remove tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and halt purchases of Russian oil.
India also committed to purchasing more than $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. However, key details remain unclear, including when the deal takes effect and which specific products India will buy.

🌽 Grain Markets
Grain futures extended losses on Monday. The March 2026 corn contract fell roughly 3 cents to near $4.26 per bushel, while March 2026 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to around $10.60 per bushel.
Wheat futures also ended lower, pressured by concerns about frigid temperatures across the US Plains and the Black Sea region.

🚢 Export Inspections
US corn inspections declined last week but remain strong overall. The USDA reported inspections of 1.1 million metric tons for the week ending January 29, down 27% from the prior week and nearly 10% below the same week last year.
Soybean inspections came in near the high end of expectations at 1.3 million metric tons. That figure was slightly lower week-over-week but well above last year’s pace, with China accounting for roughly 56% of total shipments.
Wheat inspections totaled 326,828 metric tons, near the top of expectations. Shipments were lower versus the previous week but significantly higher than the same week last year.

🥩 Tyson Foods
Tyson Foods reported another difficult quarter for its beef segment, posting an adjusted operating loss of $143 million. Tight cattle supplies continue to push costs higher, and Tyson expects those conditions to persist through this year and into 2027.
In contrast, Tyson’s chicken segment posted year-over-year sales growth, marking a fifth straight quarter of volume gains. The company expects chicken to be the preferred protein this year due to affordability.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybeans
Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to advance steadily. AgRural estimates that 10% of the crop had been harvested as of last Thursday, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.
StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 181.6 million metric tons, while Celeres lifted its forecast to 181.3 million.

🚜 Farm Aid Talks
Lawmakers continue to push for additional farmer assistance. Michigan Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet said more aid is needed to help farmers cope with high input costs and tariff-related disruptions.
She emphasized that federal aid is a temporary fix and that farmers ultimately need more reliable markets and predictable trade policy. McDonald is a co-sponsor of the proposed Farm and Family Relief Act of 2026, which calls for nearly $30 billion in aid. She believes Congress will approve the recently discussed $15 billion package by the end of the month.