How To Invest For The "AI Endgame": Currencies, Trade, and Tech.

If you only looked at your crypto or software stocks this week, you probably think the sky is falling. But if you zoom out, the Dow just hit 50,000 and Europe is at all-time highs. This isn't a market crash, it's a changing of the guard.* The Market Regime: From “US Tech Dominance” to “Global Industrial/Breadth.”* The Tech Regime: From “SaaS Middle Game” to “AI Endgame” (Atoms & Energy).* The Geopolitical Regime: From “Alliances” to “Transactionalism” (Trump/Carney).The speed of technological releases is mind numbing. It seems every week I am learning and adapting portfolios and my mental model of how all this new technology will defuse into the world.It’s terrifying and exciting.Market Update📈📉For decades, the U.S. dollar has functioned as a safe haven.When investors get nervous, capital flows into dollars. When fear rises, demand for safety rises with it. The dollar benefits.So what does it mean when the dollar is making multiyear lows in the middle of a broadening bull market?Maybe it’s not about debasement. Maybe it’s not about the end of fiat currency. Maybe it’s much simpler than that.In an environment where investors are embracing risk across sectors, countries, and asset classes, who needs the ultimate safe haven?Instead of asking what a weaker dollar is doing to stocks, maybe we should be asking what stocks, and risk assets around the world, are doing to the dollar.Emerging Markets Hit All-Time HighsThe move to new all-time highs is not happening in isolation. It reflects rotation.Capital is moving away from crowded mega-cap U.S. technology stocks and into other risk assets.Participation is expanding. Leadership is changing. That’s what healthy bull markets do.This is not a China trade and it’s not a dollar collapse trade.In our opinion, it’s a risk appetite and global rotation story. This is what money moving toward opportunity looks like.When emerging-market currencies are breaking out and emerging-market equities are printing fresh all-time highs, that’s not fear. That’s demand.The USD is not falling apart it’s just not needed in this current moment.Because in a broad, expanding bull market, investors do not hide.They hunt.Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙* Patel on the MAD pod* OpenClaw Eliminates Apps* Elon having beers with Stripe and DwarkeshBest Links of The Week🔮* Brent Beshore on the human competitive advantage - Twitter/X* Sinofsky on the death of software… Nah but kinda - Twitter/X* One of the best interviews i’ve listened to between Ben Thompson and Benedict Evans on SAAS - Stratechery* “Mexico's decision to halt oil shipments to Cuba has delivered a fresh blow to the fuel-starved country, with the island logging its first month without oil imports in a decade. Oil imports to the island reached zero in January for the first time since 2015... due to a US naval blockade and threat to impose tariffs. Cuba is facing shortages of everything, from cooking gas, to water and electricity, with multi-hour lines at gas stations and at least two large beach resorts shutting down due to gasoline shortages.” Source: Bloomberg* Home automation is swiftly moving into wellness-focused applications, as our friend Joe Mattera of Mattera AV Designs writes in a recent blog post. Computer controlled lighting through the day can combat Seasonal Affective Disorder and help keep you “in the zone” as you work in your home office. Automated heating and cooling, linked to motion sensors, can save real money and alleviate financial anxiety. Security systems increase peace of mind. Frankly, we always thought home automation was a “nice to have”, but after reading this it feels more like an essential for any home. Read Joe’s full take here.* “OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees that ChatGPT is “back to exceeding 10% monthly growth,” according to an internal Slack message viewed by CNBC. The company is aiming to launch a new model within ChatGPT this week, Altman said. More than 800 million people use OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT, weekly, but the company is facing increasingly stiff competition... On Monday, OpenAI will officially begin testing ads within ChatGPT.” Source: CNBC This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com