In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with Hemant Mishr, Co-Founder and Group CIO of SCUBE Capital, and former Managing Director & Head- Financial Markets, South East Asia, SCCG at Standard Chartered Bank. They talk about how rising geopolitical tensions—from the Iran conflict to great-power rivalry—are beginning to reshape the foundations of the global financial system. They discuss how the post-1970s financial architecture was built on three pillars: globalization, a rules-based order backed by the United States, and relative geopolitical consensus.

Mishr explains how that system evolved around the oil shocks of the 1970s and the emergence of the petrodollar, which helped anchor the dominance of the US dollar and the recycling of global capital through American markets. But today, shifting power balances, the expanding use of financial sanctions, and growing geopolitical fragmentation are testing that framework.

What does this mean for the future of the dollar, global capital flows, and emerging economies like India?

Tune in for insights into how geopolitics is reshaping the world’s financial architecture.

SHOW NOTES

(00:00) Introduction

(00:52) Pillars of Financial Architecture

(02:18) Rise of the Petrodollar

(03:25) Shift to Petrodollar 2.0

(04:06) Three Scenarios for Finance

(06:05) India’s Role as Swing State

(07:25) Economic Impact of Oil Prices

(09:37) Risks to Rupee and Remittances

(11:02) Managing Complex Geopolitical Ties

(12:59) Timelines for Market Recovery

(16:17) Resilience of India’s Growth

(18:31) Investing in Indian Markets

(20:41) Lessons from China’s Model

(22:49) Managing Exchange Rate Volatility

(24:45) Deepening Local Credit Markets

(26:23) China’s Strategic Currency Policy

(29:57) Attracting Global Institutional Capital

(32:21) Developing International Financial Hubs

(34:24) Technology and Data Security

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In this episode, journalist Puja Mehra speaks with economist Dr. Shekhar Aiyar about the recent US Supreme Court ruling that struck down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as the legal basis for President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. As Washington recalibrates its trade strategy, Aiyar argues that the judgment is more than a legal setback — it reshapes the balance of power in ongoing trade negotiations, including those with India.

They discuss what this means for the current 15% global tariff, the earlier 50% duties imposed on Indian imports, and whether companies can realistically expect refunds. The episode also examines how the timing of the ruling intersects with India–US trade deal negotiations, and why India’s bargaining position may have improved significantly.

They also talk about the broader geopolitical implications of the decision — from the use of tariffs as strategic leverage to the erosion of the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement system. As global trade becomes more fragmented, Aiyar makes the case for diversification, institutional reform, and a more assertive Indian role in shaping the next phase of multilateral trade rules. Tune in for insights on the reshaping of India’s trade strategy.

SHOW NOTES

(00:00) Introduction

(00:20) US Supreme Court Ruling on Trump Tariffs

(02:47) Impact on Indian Exports and Alternative Trade Instruments

(04:39) Prospects for Tariff Refunds for Indian Exporters

(06:30) Status of India-US Trade Deal Negotiations

(10:13) Limits of Executive Power in Setting High Tariff Rates

(11:10) Duration and Renewal of Section 122 Tariffs

(12:32) Recommendations for Indian Trade Negotiators

(14:55) Geopolitical Implications and Trade Diversification

(17:18) WTO Ministerial and Reforming Dispute Resolution

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