How Global Energy Shocks Will Shape UK Politics, Inflation and the Housing Market

Tom Bill talks to James Nation on Tuesday 10 March about how the fast‑moving conflict in the Middle East is reshaping UK politics, the inflation landscape, and the housing market. James draws parallels with the 2022 energy shock when he worked in the Treasury and explains how geopolitical instability complicates decisions for the Chancellor and the Bank of England. They discuss the risks to fiscal headroom, the unpredictability of mortgage rates, and the different political and economic scenarios that may play out depending on how long the disruption lasts. The conversation also explores the pressures facing the government ahead of this year’s autumn Budget, the implications for housing policy, and what the coming months may mean for Keir Starmer following Labour’s defeat in the recent Gorton and Denton by-election.

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