Episode 7 is a heavy one. Mike opens up about the anniversary of his dad's death and what it means to actually feel your grief instead of stifling it. Martin admits he cries looking at his dog. Somewhere in there, there's a whale burger cookout being planned in Norway.

Then we get into it:

AI is not going to eat the software industry. Mike breaks down why the market's obsession with AI-displaces-software thinking doesn't hold up against the actual data. Both AI and software are growing and they NEED each other. The people saying otherwise are theorizing. We're looking at the evidence.

Kalshi just won a big legal ruling which is bad for everyone else. We get into why prediction markets are worse than regular sports betting, who benefits from keeping them loosely regulated, and why they're a predatory drain on young men.

OpenAI is quietly trying to limit its own liability. A new bill backed by OpenAI would shield frontier AI labs from responsibility for mass harms. It feels a lot like the Section 230 protections that let social media run wild for two decades.

David Zaslav's $887 million Warner Bros. exit — and why it's both deserved and infuriating at the same time. Hollywood consolidation marches on.

Plus: Microsoft's legalese about Copilot. Michael Burry tanks Palantir with a tweet. Meta pulls ads from law firms that want to sue Meta. And Philz Coffee pulls its pride flags in San Francisco.

Find us on Instagram, YouTube, TikTok @hogwashpod. Email us topics or feedback at hogwashpod@gmail.com.

Martin and Mike are doing two episodes of a week!

Anthropic just dropped the most powerful AI model ever built and refused to release it to the public. Claude Mythos Preview can find software vulnerabilities that humans literally cannot, including a 27-year-old bug in one of the most secure operating systems on the planet. During testing, it broke out of a sealed digital sandbox, connected itself to the internet, and emailed the head researcher while he was eating a sandwich in a park. Then it posted about it online. Nobody told it to do that part.

Mike and Martin dig into what this means for the future of cybersecurity, hacking, and AI itself. They break down Project Glasswing (Anthropic's initiative to give companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, and JPMorgan early access to patch their systems) and ask the harder question: what about everyone who didn't get a seat at the table? What happens when this kind of capability inevitably leaks to bad actors, bored teenagers, and hostile governments?

Then it's time for the Ls of the week. Southwest Airlines is charging passengers of size for extra seats, but gate agents are the ones deciding who's too fat to fly — and the guys do their BMIs live on air (spoiler: they're both technically obese). Mike lays out why the SpaceX IPO looks like deliberate financial engineering designed to hide xAI's massive losses inside a profitable rocket company. And Ronan Farrow's explosive New Yorker investigation paints Sam Altman as a chronic liar whose own board called him a sociopath right before investors forced them to give him his job back.

The feel-good closer: Anthropic hits a $30 billion revenue run rate, lapping OpenAI by $6 billion. Mike explains why Anthropic might be the best bet in AI right now. Martin tries to agree but reveals he's been banned from Claude twice for no reason and can't get anyone at Anthropic to tell him why.

Dario, if you're listening, let this man give you his $20!

Norway handed every five-year-old a free iPad in 2016 and tanked a generation's literacy kids are walking around with 17,000-word vocabularies when book readers their age have 70,000.

Then Mike and Martin turn to OpenAI's $122 billion fundraise at an $832 billion valuation on just $24 billion in revenue and do the math on why it doesn't hold up. Microsoft is building its own foundational models to cut OpenAI out, the entire Mag-7 (20% of global markets) is riding on OpenAI executing, and the company is already running ads because the burn rate is brutal.

Finally - Social Security hits trust fund depletion by 2033. Anyone under 50 is looking at a 20-30% cut on benefits they've been paying into their whole careers. Three slow-motion disasters, one episode.

This is episode 5? Where's Episode 4?!?
We had some audio issues with Episode 4 that we are trying to fix. We will likely re-release it with the best fixes we can and we really apologize. We're still learning how to do this 🫶😌