Episodios

  • Game Theory — Tuesday: D&D Module History — From Death Traps to Balanced Narratives

    Game Theory — Tuesday: D&D Module History — From Death Traps to Balanced Narratives
    Dec 17 2025
    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. This is Game Theory — D&D Module History: From Death Traps to Balanced Narratives The Brutal Era: Tomb of Horrors (1978) • Gary Gygax wrote Tomb of Horrors not to make a fun adventure, but to kill characters systematically and ruthlessly • Masterclass in saying "Welcome to this dungeon. You will probably die. Most of you should die. That's the point." What Made Early Modules So Brutal • No saving throws for traps—trigger and die, no negotiation, no clever solution • Pit traps doing 4d6 damage when characters have 6-12 hit points at low levels • Traps were lethal—lesson was "be careful or die" • Monsters weren't balanced around party level • Tomb has encounters mathematically unwinnable if not specifically prepared • Ancient red dragons breathing fire in confined spaces • Liches with actual spell lists • Beholders with full eyeray suites • No social encounters, no negotiation options—fight or run • Module didn't care about character concept or pacifist bards • Had a problem (dungeon full of monsters), you solved it or died trying The Template: Not Just Tomb of Horrors • Dungeon of the Mad Mage • Curse of the Dark Powers • Keep on the Borderlands • All shared same philosophy: "The world doesn't care about you. The world has teeth." • Venture into dangerous places and might not come back The Playstyle This Created • Adventurers were desperate—not exploring for glory, but for money or power to survive • Character death was common—most adventurers died in first dungeon • Not tragedy, but expected—roll up new character and move on The Shift: Late 1980s-1990s • Modules started getting narrative structure • Ravenloft modules like Curse of Strahd had stories • NPCs with motivations • Plots that unfolded • Death still possible but felt meaningful • Dying in service of a story, not to random trap 3rd Edition D&D (2000): The Balance Revolution • Modules started getting balanced • Encounter difficulty was calculated • Treasure distributed according to rules • DMs had actual guidance on scaling encounters for party level • Revolutionary: modules weren't deathtraps anymore—games with consistent difficulty curves 5th Edition: Modern Soft Approach • Modern 5E modules (Curse of Strahd, Dragon of Icespire Peak, Waterdeep Dragon Heist) • Masterfully written with incredible production value • Beautifully illustrated and organized • But also forgiving—encounters designed so competent party won't die • Multiple solutions to problems • NPCs offer alternatives to combat • Social encounters have real mechanical weight • Designed for narrative—want you to experience story • Want you to care about NPCs and feel invested in outcomes • Early modules wanted you to survive; modern modules want you to thrive within narrative structure The Intentional Shift • Modern players want story-driven experiences • Want their characters to matter • Want to feel like heroes, not desperate mercenaries one bad roll away from death • Modules adapted to player preferences Old Modules That Still Hold Up • Tomb of Horrors: Works today because explicit about what it is—tactical puzzle where puzzle pieces can kill you • Keep on the Borderlands: Sandbox giving locations, NPCs, factions—lets you decide what to do • Descent into Avernus: Modern module capturing old-school brutality while maintaining 5E narrative focus What Makes a Module Timeless • Has to be adaptable • Has to respect player agency • Has to have consequences for failure—real consequences, not just "you lost, now reroll" • Has to understand D&D is collaborative—playing with players, not at them • Best modules (Tomb of Horrors to Curse of Strahd) set up world with problems • Give you tools to face problems • Let you face them however you want • Some solutions fail, some succeed brilliantly, some surprise everyone • That's the magic The Evolution: Not Degradation, But Maturation • We learned adventure design isn't about killing players • It's about creating worlds where player choices matter • Where failure has consequences • Where success feels earned That's Game Theory. Subscribe if you haven't already. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    7 m
  • Market Pulse — Tuesday: Oil, Gas, Credit, Stocks & Real Estate Numbers

    Market Pulse — Tuesday: Oil, Gas, Credit, Stocks & Real Estate Numbers
    Dec 16 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily
    An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing.

    This is Market Pulse — Tuesday's Numbers

    Oil Markets
    • WTI Crude: $55.80 per barrel (down 1.79%)
    • Brent: $59.65 (down 1.50%)
    • Oil prices hit multi-year lows as oversupply concerns dominate
    • Market faces deteriorating demand outlook with growing surplus driven by OPEC Plus restoring output and rising production in U.S. and Brazil
    • Weak Chinese economic data raised concerns about slowing energy demand from world's largest crude importer
    • Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations reduced risk premium, as agreement could ease sanctions on Russian crude exports

    Natural Gas Markets
    • Henry Hub: $3.94 per million British thermal units (down 1.92%)
    • Above-average temperatures forecast ahead of Christmas could curb heating demand
    • Record production levels and ample storage supplies weigh on prices
    • Natural gas expected to trade at $4.16 by quarter end

    Credit Markets
    • SOFR held at 3.67%
    • 30-day average SOFR: 3.94%
    • Federal funds rate remains at 3.50 to 3.75%
    • Markets continue digesting Fed's projection of only one additional rate cut in 2026

    Stock Markets
    • S&P 500: fell 0.16% to 6,817
    • Nasdaq Composite: declined 0.59% to 23,057
    • Dow Jones Industrial Average: dropped 0.09% to 48,417
    • AI stocks including Broadcom and Oracle pressured major indexes
    • Concerns about profitability and financing of large-scale AI investments contributed to market jitters
    • Investors await November's jobs report for labor market insights

    Real Estate Markets
    • Mortgage rates averaging 6.34% for 30-year fixed mortgages
    • Industrial sector remains the most dynamic
    • Multifamily Class A buildings averaged 5% cap rates
    • Class B multifamily properties recorded 7% cap rates
    • Office fundamentals remain challenged

    Bottom Line
    • Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. WTI $55.80, Brent $59.65. Oversupply concerns, weak China data.
    • Gas: $3.94. Warm weather forecast curbing demand.
    • Credit: SOFR 3.67%.
    • Stocks: S&P 500 6,817, Nasdaq 23,057, Dow 48,417. AI stocks pressured.
    • Real Estate: Mortgage rates 6.34%. Industrial strong.

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    3 m
  • Game Theory — Monday: The Butcher's Nails — Angron's Curse

    Game Theory — Monday: The Butcher's Nails — Angron's Curse
    Dec 16 2025
    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. This is Game Theory — The Butcher's Nails: Angron's Curse Angron's Origin • Born superhuman, a demigod, one of the Emperor's 20 Primarchs • Meant to conquer worlds and lead armies • Intelligence to strategize, strength to level mountains, presence to command loyalty • Captured as a child by slavers of Nuceria who implanted metal spikes directly into his brain What Are the Butcher's Nails? • Neurological implants designed to control, not enhance • Created by slavers to override free will, increase aggression, make slaves into unstoppable killers • Create a feedback loop of rage and pain • Angron experiences constant baseline neurological agony every moment of every day • Not debilitating in stopping movement—worse: constant, unchanging, wired directly into emotion control • Like the worst headache ever had, but permanent • Can never escape it, never numb it, never get used to it How the Nails Work • Only time Angron experiences relief is during combat—fighting, killing, blood spilling • Nails create chemical rush that temporarily suppresses the agony • Angron is biologically, neurologically, chemically addicted to violence • Doesn't choose to fight because he's angry—fights because his brain rewards violence as only escape from torture • Genius and horror: don't make you mindless berserker • Retain intelligence, strategy, everything that makes you you • Trapped in a body screaming for violence constantly • Only way to make it stop: give in to that screaming • Not possession or traditional mind control—neurological torture with only one escape valve: killing The Emperor's Choice • When Emperor found Angron, nails were already deep and integrated • Emperor had power to remove them (God-level psyker with centuries of experience) • But removing them would likely kill Angron • Pain of extraction, neurological shock, sudden removal of only framework his brain had known for years would destroy him • Emperor's decision: leave them in, keep Primarch alive but suffering • Angron becomes Emperor's most powerful weapon because of his suffering • Nails make him unbeatable in combat • Pain keeps him constantly on edge of violence • Perfect instrument of conquest—not fighting for glory, honor, or strategy • Fighting because his own brain is torturing him, and violence is only relief The Psychology of the Curse • Knowing on intellectual level that your own body is your prison • Having enough consciousness to understand you're being controlled • Addicted to violence, can't stop because stopping means drowning in pain • Being a God-level warrior who knows he's being used as a tool • Unable to do anything about it because alternative is agony beyond comprehension The Horus Heresy and Chaos • When Horus Heresy begins, Angron doesn't join Horus for the cause • Joins because Chaos offers something Imperium never did: acceptance of his nature • Chaos doesn't try to suppress the nails or apologize • Chaos embraces them: "Your pain is real. Your rage is justified. Stop fighting it. Let it consume you." • After a lifetime of torture, that acceptance (even from forces of literal damnation) feels like freedom • By the end, Angron so consumed by nails that he's barely human anymore • Pure rage, pure pain transformed into violence • Nails so integrated into psyche that removing them now would remove core of who he is • Tortured so thoroughly that torture has become his identity The World Eaters' Legacy • Angron's Legion inherits this curse • Start getting Butcher's Nails implanted voluntarily • Want to understand their Primarch, share his burden • Slowly, entire Legion becomes addicted to violence • Trapped in feedback loop of pain and rage • Unable to stop because stopping means drowning The Tragedy • Shows how even God-like beings can be broken • Shows how a weapon designed to create soldiers can create monsters instead • Shows how suffering can corrupt not just body, but soul • Angron isn't evil because he chose to be—he's broken because he was made to be broken • Abandoned in that brokenness by the very people who were supposed to save him • Never given a choice: not as a slave, not as a Primarch, not even as a Chaos God entity • Prisoner in his own skull, screaming forever • No escape except temporary relief of violence That's Game Theory. Subscribe if you haven't already. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    7 m
  • Market Pulse — Monday: Oil, Gas, Stocks, SOFR & Real Estate Numbers

    Market Pulse — Monday: Oil, Gas, Stocks, SOFR & Real Estate Numbers
    Dec 15 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily
    An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

    This is Market Pulse — Monday's numbers.

    Oil
    • WTI crude fell 0.30% to $57.27 per barrel
    • Brent crude rose 0.13% to $61.20
    • Double bottom chart pattern forming around $57-$57.30
    • Down 4.33% over past month, down 18.52% year over year
    • 2026 surplus expected as supply outpaces demand

    Natural Gas
    • Henry Hub fell 0.31% to $4.10 per MMBtu
    • Down 5.98% over past month, up 27.58% year over year
    • Expected $4.16 by quarter end, $5.12 in 12 months
    • Strong production and ample inventories weigh on prices

    Credit
    • SOFR fell to 3.66% on December 11
    • Federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% (third consecutive 25bp cut)
    • Fed projects only one additional 25bp cut in 2026
    • Growth forecasts revised higher: 1.7% for 2025, 2.3% for 2026

    Stocks
    • S&P 500 increased to 6,864 points, up 0.54%
    • Key data this week: November jobs report, monthly CPI, retail sales, consumer spending, housing starts, building permits, flash PMI data
    • Earnings reports from Micron Technology, Nike, and FedEx
    • Quadruple witching Friday may lead to increased volatility

    Real Estate
    • Improved sentiment heading into 2025
    • Transaction activity expected to increase up to 10% in 2025
    • Cap rates likely to decline slightly but stabilize at higher levels
    • Industrial remains strong, multifamily construction easing
    • Office leasing volume projected to increase 5%
    • Data centers remain high demand

    Bottom Line
    • Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75
    • Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked
    • Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs
    • Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650+, LTV under 65%

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    4 m
  • Game Theory — Friday: Underwater Cities — Building the Ocean's Greatest Civilization

    Game Theory — Friday: Underwater Cities — Building the Ocean's Greatest Civilization
    Dec 13 2025
    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. This is Game Theory — Underwater Cities: Building the Ocean's Greatest Civilization Introduction • Underwater Cities designed by Vladimir Suchy (one of the most respected heavy Euro designers in the world) • Not a light game — deep strategy wrapped in sci-fi theme about overpopulation forcing humanity to colonize the ocean floor • Complex, beautiful, and absolutely rewarding • Playtime: 2 to 2.5 hours, requires thinking three moves ahead Core Mechanic: Card Placement • Central board with 3x5 grid of colored slots • Players take turns placing colored cards into slots • When you match card color to slot color, you get both benefits: action from board slot AND advantage printed on card • Miss the color match, you only get card advantage • Tension between forcing your move now versus waiting for perfect match is where strategy lives Building Your Underwater Civilization • Collect raw materials: biomatter, kelp, steelplast, and science tokens • Use resources to build city domes, tunnels, and production buildings • Farms produce food • Desalination plants produce water • Laboratories produce science • Each building type feeds into your scoring engine and creates synergies • Well-built farm early game compounds into points all game long • Engine building at its finest Three Eras: Early, Middle, Late • Each era introduces new cards with more complex interactions • Early game: establishing your economic foundation • Middle game: scaling production and building synergies • Late game: executing your strategy and racing to fill your tableau • Card pool changes each era, so available options shift • Adaptation matters Personal Assistant Cards • Power cards that let you break normal rules in specific ways • Limited and valuable • Using them at right moment turns good turn into devastating turn • About timing, not just raw power • Separates Underwater Cities from other heavy Euros Layered Scoring System • Points from your buildings • Points from Metropolis tiles (special bonuses you unlock by meeting certain conditions) • Points from government contracts (secret objectives that reward specific actions) • Endgame bonuses based on what you prioritized: • Player who maximized farms gets bonus points for farms • Player who focused on laboratories gets science bonuses • Scoring system rewards coherent strategies, not scattered decisions Player Count Matters • At 2 players: tense tactical duel, fighting over same cards, slots, resources • At 3 or 4: more chaos, more unpredictability, more table talk, more moments where someone does something brilliant and everyone scrambles to adapt • Both are legitimate strategies Solo Mode with Legitimate Depth • Play against AI opponent • Not just multiplayer solitaire • Playing against actual strategic opponent with own goals and limitations • If you own this game and haven't tried solo, you're missing 30% of the experience Production Quality • Gorgeous art, clean iconography, consistent design • Components feel premium • Double-sided player boards give asymmetric options • Different layouts create different scoring opportunities • Game respects your time and intelligence Real Talk: Who Is This For? • Plays 80-150 minutes depending on player count and experience • Moderate in-game text • Need to track production chains, scoring conditions, and card synergies • Not for quick and light gameplay • Perfect for players who want game that rewards deep thinking, engine building, and multiple viable strategies in every play Awards and Community • Won major awards: Swiss Gamers Award, Jugg Adult Game of the Year, Kennerspiel des Jahres Recommendations • Active community • Incredible replay value because card variants create totally different games each time • Could play 50 times and find new strategies every single session Why Underwater Cities Works • Proves heavy Euro games can be thematic and mechanically deep • Not just optimizing abstract systems — you're building a city • Making decisions that feel real, that matter, that compound into victory • That's the fantasy, that's why it works That's Game Theory. Subscribe if you haven't already. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    6 m
  • Market Pulse — Friday: Oil, Gas, Credit, Real Estate & Stocks Week-End Wrap

    Market Pulse — Friday: Oil, Gas, Credit, Real Estate & Stocks Week-End Wrap
    Dec 12 2025
    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. This is Market Pulse — Friday's Numbers Oil Markets • WTI Crude: $70.08 per barrel (up 0.4%) • Brent: $73.91 (up 0.5%) • WTI-Brent spread: $3.83 • Oil prices gained ground as markets assessed supply dynamics heading into year-end • Despite Friday's gains, crude remains under pressure from oversupply concerns • U.S. production continues at record levels near 13.6 million barrels per day • OPEC Plus maintains production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, with next increase delayed until April 2026 • Analysts project WTI will average $65-$70 in 2026, with downward pressure from growing non-OPEC supply Natural Gas Markets • Henry Hub: $4.61 per million British thermal units (up 1.8%) • Prices ticked higher as colder weather forecasts emerged for late December and early January • LNG export demand remains robust, with facilities operating near capacity • Storage levels sit 5% below the five-year average, providing support for prices • EIA projects Henry Hub will average $4.30 overall in winter 2025-26 • Natural gas has pulled back from three-year highs reached earlier this month but remains well-supported by export demand and seasonal factors Credit Markets • SOFR held at 3.93% following Wednesday's Fed rate cut • Federal funds rate now sits at 3.50-3.75%, marking third consecutive cut since September • Fed signaled cautious approach to future cuts, with only one additional reduction expected in 2026 • Credit markets adjusting to new rate environment • Three-month SOFR rate now below ten-year SOFR rate, meaning short-term floating-rate funding is cheaper than long-term fixed-rate funding • Inverted curve suggests markets expect rates to remain lower for longer • Corporate bond issuance remains strong as companies lock in favorable rates • Senior secured loans with SOFR plus 650 basis points and LTV under 65% continue to offer attractive risk-adjusted returns Stock Markets • Stock markets ended the week on a mixed note • S&P 500: closed at 6,051 (down 0.5% for the week, but still up over 27% year-to-date) • Nasdaq Composite: fell 0.7% for the week to 19,926 (pressured by concerns about AI spending following Oracle's disappointing earnings) • Dow Jones Industrial Average: rose 0.3% for the week to 43,828 (supported by industrial and financial stocks) • Oracle's stock plunged over 10% Thursday after reporting weak revenue guidance and increased capital expenditure forecasts • The sell-off sparked broader concerns about AI profitability and sustainability • Nvidia and other AI-related stocks declined in sympathy • Tech sector volatility increased as investors reassessed valuations • Energy stocks outperformed, rising 2.1% for the week on higher oil prices mid-week • Financials gained 1.4%, benefiting from steeper yield curves and strong lending activity Real Estate Markets • Existing home sales data showed continued weakness • November sales fell 4.8% to 4.15 million units • Median home prices rose 4.7% year-over-year to $406,100 • Inventory remains tight at 1.37 million homes, a 3.8-month supply • Mortgage rates held near 6.7%, constraining affordability • Industrial real estate remains strong, driven by e-commerce demand and nearshoring trends • Office vacancy rates hit record highs at 18.7% • Industrial cap rates compressed below 5.5% in key logistics markets Bottom Line • Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. WTI up 0.4% to $70.08, Brent up 0.5% to $73.91. U.S. production at record 13.6 million barrels per day. OPEC Plus cuts maintained. Analysts project $65-$70 in 2026. • Gas: Up 1.8% to $4.61. Colder weather forecasts emerging. LNG exports near capacity. Storage 5% below average. EIA projects $4.30 winter average. • Credit: SOFR at 3.93%, federal funds at 3.50-3.75%. Three-month SOFR below ten-year. One additional cut expected in 2026. Senior secured loans attractive at SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%. • Stocks: S&P 500 at 6,051 (down 0.5% for week, up 27% year-to-date). Nasdaq at 19,926 (down 0.7%). Dow at 43,828 (up 0.3%). Oracle concerns weighed on AI stocks. Energy up 2.1%, financials up 1.4%. • Real Estate: Sales down 4.8% to 4.15 million units. Median price $406,100. Mortgage rates 6.7%. Industrial cap rates below 5.5% in key markets. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    6 m
  • Game Theory — Thursday: This Week's Hottest Gaming News

    Game Theory — Thursday: This Week's Hottest Gaming News
    Dec 12 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily
    An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing.

    This is Game Theory — This Week's Hottest Gaming News

    Microsoft Xbox Layoffs
    • Major layoffs at Xbox Game Studios affecting Bethesda, 343 Industries, The Coalition
    • Part of broader restructuring following Activision Blizzard acquisition
    • Gaming industry saw over 10,000 layoffs in 2024 alone, trend continuing into 2025
    • Even biggest companies tightening budgets and cutting costs

    PlayStation 5 Pro Details
    • Upgraded GPU: 60 compute units running at 2.35 GHz
    • Approximately 45% faster rendering than base PS5
    • Custom AI accelerator for PlayStation Spectral Super Resolution (Sony's answer to NVIDIA DLSS)
    • Expected launch: late 2025, price point around $600
    • Premium product aimed at enthusiasts wanting best performance

    Nintendo Switch Successor
    • Official announcement confirmed for early 2025
    • Release expected late 2025 or early 2026
    • Rumors: backward compatibility with Switch games, upgraded OLED display, improved performance with custom NVIDIA chip
    • One of most anticipated hardware releases in years

    Grand Theft Auto VI
    • First gameplay trailer released
    • Return to Vice City (fictionalized Miami)
    • Dual protagonists: Jason and Lucia
    • Massive open world, dynamic weather systems, next-gen graphics
    • Release: 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X/S, PC release expected later
    • Trailer became most-viewed video game trailer in history within 24 hours

    Counter-Strike 2 Update
    • New map: Anubis
    • Reworked ranking system
    • Balance changes to several weapons
    • Improvements to anti-cheat system
    • Massive success since launch, Valve committed to regular updates
    • Competitive scene thriving, major tournaments scheduled throughout 2025

    Fortnite Chapter 5 Season 1
    • Collaboration with Avatar: The Last Airbender
    • Skins for Aang, Katara, Zuko, Toph
    • Themed weapons and map changes
    • Continues to dominate battle royale genre with high-profile collaborations

    Diablo IV Season 3
    • Launches mid-December
    • New endgame activity: the Gauntlet (timed dungeon challenge with leaderboards)
    • Exclusive rewards for top performers
    • Rocky launch but Blizzard addressing player feedback
    • Critical test for game's long-term viability

    Final Fantasy VII Rebirth PC Release
    • Coming early 2026
    • Originally PS5 exclusive (launched early 2024)
    • PC version includes all DLC and quality-of-life improvements
    • Praised for storytelling and combat system

    FromSoftware x George R.R. Martin New Project
    • Teaser suggests dark fantasy setting with Soulslike gameplay
    • Separate from Elden Ring
    • Could be spiritual successor to Bloodborne or entirely new IP

    Cyberpunk 2077 Sales Milestone
    • Over 25 million copies sold worldwide
    • One of best-selling RPGs of all time
    • Disastrous 2020 launch redeemed by years of updates and Phantom Liberty expansion
    • CD Projekt Red now focused on The Witcher IV and new Cyberpunk sequel

    Assassin's Creed Shadows Delayed
    • Originally November 2025, now March 2026
    • Set in feudal Japan with dual protagonists (samurai and shinobi)
    • Ubisoft cited need for additional polish and development time

    League of Legends Season 15
    • New champion: Ambessa (Noxian warlord, bruiser playstyle)
    • Reworked ranked system and balance changes
    • Remains one of most-played games in world

    Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
    • Launches November 2025
    • Campaign set during Cold War
    • Multiplayer with classic maps
    • New Zombies experience
    • Expected to be one of biggest releases of year

    That's Game Theory. Subscribe if you haven't already.

    Visit GotTheGold.com.

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    5 m
  • Market Pulse — Thursday: Oil, Gas, Real Estate & Credit Numbers

    Market Pulse — Thursday: Oil, Gas, Real Estate & Credit Numbers
    Dec 11 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily
    An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

    This is Market Pulse — Thursday's Numbers

    Oil
    • WTI Crude: $57.65/barrel, down 1.43%
    • Brent Crude: $61.49, down 1.16%
    • Oversupply concerns dominate; prices down 17.66% year over year
    • EIA projects WTI to average $65.32 in 2025, further declines through 2026
    • US producers hedging 800,000 barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026
    • IEA projects significant oil supply surplus in 2026

    Gas
    • Henry Hub Natural Gas: $4.53/MMBtu, down 1.42%
    • Milder weather persists; market well supplied with near-record production
    • Ample storage available; LNG export demand remains strong

    Federal Reserve & Credit
    • Fed cut rates 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75%
    • SOFR fell to 3.93% on December 10th
    • 3-month SOFR now below 10-year SOFR—cheaper to fund floating than fixed
    • Fed signals possible pause; only one additional cut expected in 2026

    Stocks
    • S&P 500 down 0.61% to 6,845 points (up 13.11% year over year)
    • Oracle plunged 10% on weak revenue outlook and increased spending
    • AI sector concerns spreading to Nvidia and broader market futures

    Bottom Line
    • Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75
    • WTI down to $57.65, Brent down 1.16% to $61.49
    • Production forecast: 106.18 million barrels/day in 2025, 107.43 in 2026
    • Global oil demand projected to rise only 830,000 barrels/day in 2025

    Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    5 m