Private credit has grown into a $1.6–1.7 trillion market, but much of the current narrative is dominated by concerns around defaults, AI disruption and liquidity.

In this episode, David Hirschmann, Co-Head of Permira Credit, explains why private credit is a structural evolution of the financial system, not a cyclical boom, and why much of the perceived risk reflects a misunderstanding of how credit actually works.

What we cover

🔹The post-GFC origins of private credit

🔹How direct lending competes with syndicated loans

🔹Why borrowers pay a premium for certainty and flexibility

🔹 The role of equity cushions in protecting lenders

🔹 What really happens in a default scenario

🔹Why extreme default forecasts may be overstated

🔹The difference between equity risk and credit risk

🔹How AI impacts credit underwriting

🔹Why information advantage matters in private credit

🔹How LPs assess and differentiate managers

Private credit is often judged through an equity lens, focusing on valuation risk and market sentiment.

In reality, credit investing is driven by cash flow durability, capital structure and recovery dynamics, which can produce strong outcomes even when equity returns disappoint.

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David Hirschmann

Co-Head of Permira Credit & Head of Private Credit

🔗CONNECT on LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-hirschmann-4072a2/

🌐 https://www.permira.com/investing/credit

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Ross Butler

Founder and Host Fund Shack

🔗 CONNECT on LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/in/rossbutler1/

🌐 www.fund-shack.com

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📘 Order Ross Butler’s book

👉 Invest Like a Barbarian: Share in the spoils of the Private Markets revolution

♾️ http://q-r.to/Invest-Like-A-Barbarian#investlikeabarbarian

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Chapters

00:00 – Private credit: structural shift or temporary boom? Why the asset class has grown so rapidly and why the current narrative may be misleading

02:20 – The post-GFC origin story. How bank retrenchment created the opportunity for private lenders

04:30 – Banks vs private credit: competition or coexistence? Where banks still dominate and where private lenders have the edge

07:00 – Private debt vs syndicated loans. Cost vs certainty, and why borrowers increasingly choose private markets

10:30 – Is private credit too borrower-friendly? Relationship lending, sponsor alignment and the role of equity cushions

12:00 – What happens when deals go wrong? Restructuring, debt-to-equity conversion and recovery dynamics

14:30 – Default rates: are markets overreacting? Why extreme forecasts may reflect macro fear rather than fundamentals

16:00 – AI risk: equity vs credit perspective. Why technological disruption impacts valuation more than repayment

20:00 – What investors get wrong about credit risk. Why leverage and covenants alone don’t tell the full story

23:00 – Case study: restructuring and recovery. How a challenged investment still delivered a positive outcome

25:00 – Can LPs really differentiate between managers? Market concentration and what actually matters in manager selection

27:00 – Why experience is critical in private credit. Downside management, restructuring and long-cycle investing

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About Fund Shack

Private Markets Podcast, Fund Shack

www.fund-shack.com

Explores private equity, private credit, infrastructure, secondaries and private wealth access through long-form, technical conversations with leading practitioners and thinkers.

💡 Suggest a guest: katie@linearB.media

📩 Join our community Substack: https://privateequitypodcastfundshack.substack.com/

📘 Explore episode summaries, transcripts and related content at www.fund-shack.com

🔔 Subscribe for more deep-dive private markets conversations

Can algorithms already outperform human decision-making in private equity?

In this episode of Private Markets Podcast, Fund Shack www.fund-shack.com, Ross Butler speaks with Oliver Gottschalg, Professor at HEC Paris and founder of Gottschalg Analytics, about how machine learning is already reshaping private equity fund selection and secondaries pricing.

Drawing on more than 25 years of empirical research and extensive real-world back-testing, Gottschalg explains why algorithmic decision support can improve outcomes using the same opportunity sets LPs invest in today. The discussion explores why private markets may be structurally better suited to machine learning than public markets, where human judgement still matters, and how lower-cost, more scalable private equity products could emerge.

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Topics covered include:

• How machine learning can outperform “normal” private equity allocation decisions
• What conservative back-testing on real LP portfolios reveals
• Why private equity secondaries pricing remains inefficient
• The limits of explainability and the rise of predictive decision-making
• How humans should interact with algorithms as downside governors, not alpha generators
• What this means for LPs, GPs and the future cost of liquidity in private markets

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Guest:

Oliver Gottschalg, Professor of Strategy and Business Policy at HEC Paris, Director of the HEC Private Equity Certificate, and Founder of Gottschalg Analytics.

🌐 Gottschalg Analytics: https://www.gottschalg.com/🔗

https://www.linkedin.com/in/oliver-gottschalg-b53b6261/

Host: Ross Butler, Founder and Host Fund Shack

🌐 www.fund-shack.com

🔗 CONNECT on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/rossbutler1/

📘 Order Ross Butler’s book

👉 Invest Like a Barbarian: Share in the spoils of the Private Markets revolution

♾️ http://q-r.to/Invest-Like-A-Barbarian#investlikeabarbarian

🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹

About Fund ShackPrivate Markets Podcast, Fund Shack www.fund-shack.comExplores private equity, private credit, infrastructure, secondaries and private wealth access through long-form, technical conversations with leading practitioners and thinkers.

💡 Suggest a guest: katie@linearB.media

📩 Join our community Substack: https://privateequitypodcastfundshack.substack.com/

🎧 Listen on podcast platforms or watch the full episode on YouTube

📘 Explore episode summaries, transcripts and related content at www.fund-shack.com

🔔 Subscribe for more deep-dive private markets conversations

In this episode of the Private Markets Podcast, Fund Shack, Ross Butler is joined by Cyril Demaria-Bengochea, Head of Private Market Strategy at Julius Baer and Associate Professor at EDHEC Business School.

Cyril brings a rare combination of academic rigour and practical industry insight, shaped by his work with institutional investors, private banks, regulators, and industry bodies including Invest Europe and ILPA. Together, Ross and Cyril unpack what is really changing in private markets, why innovation is accelerating despite slower fundraising and exits, and why information quality, not liquidity or leverage, is now the industry’s biggest constraint.

The discussion explores how continuation funds have moved rapidly into the mainstream, why evergreen structures have become central to private-wealth portfolios, and where the real risks sit beneath commonly used labels like “semi-liquid”. Cyril also offers a measured, data-driven view on private credit, arguing that its growth reflects capital filling the void left by regional banks rather than an unchecked expansion of systemic risk.

The episode goes on to examine listed versus unlisted private equity, the limits of trading private shares without public-market disclosure, and how private markets increasingly compete with fixed income rather than public equities in long-term portfolio construction.

This is a technical, practitioner-focused conversation for allocators, advisers, wealth managers, and professionals navigating private markets at scale.

Topics covered include: Evergreen private equity funds, continuation vehicles and GP-led secondaries, private credit and direct lending, portfolio construction for private wealth, listed private equity vs unlisted structures, liquidity and redemption risk, transparency and due diligence, AI and venture capital cycles, and the role of information in market discipline.

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💼

Cyril Demaria-Bengochea

Head of Private Market Strategy at Julius Baer

Associate Professor at EDHEC Business School

Author and advisor to Invest Europe, ILPA, and the European Commission

🌐 https://www.juliusbaer.com/international/en/our-solutions/investing/other-solutions-and-products/private-markets-offering/

🔗 CONNECT on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/cyril-demaria/

Ross Butler

Founder and Host Fund Shack

🌐 www.fund-shack.com

🔗 CONNECT on LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/in/rossbutler1/

🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹🔹

📘 Order Ross Butler’s book

👉 Invest Like a Barbarian: Share in the spoils of the Private Markets revolution

♾️ http://q-r.to/Invest-Like-A-Barbarian

🎬Meet the Author webinars

https://l.ead.me/BarbarianWebinar

#investlikeabarbarian

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Fund Shack is a podcast exploring private equity, venture capital, private credit, infrastructure and real assets, through in-depth conversations with the investors, founders and thought leaders shaping the future of private markets.

🔗 More episodes: www.fund-shack.com

💡 Suggest a guest: katie@linearB.media

📩 Subscribe to our Substack: https://privateequitypodcastfundshack.substack.com/

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