Full Episode - What If 9/11 Never Happened? + Predictions For Trump & American Politics In 2026

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck tackles one of the most consequential counterfactuals in modern history: what if 9/11 never happened? He explores how the attacks fundamentally altered the American psyche, shattered a post–Cold War sense of security, and transformed how Americans consume news, driving the demand for instant information and accelerating the technologies that now dominate our lives. The conversation examines how U.S. politics, foreign policy, and polarization might have evolved without the War on Terror—no Patriot Act, no Department of Homeland Security, no Iraq War—and whether the political forces that produced figures like Trump and Obama would have emerged at all. From global relationships with Russia and China to the delayed reckoning over economic inequality and partisan division, this episode traces the ripple effects of an event that reshaped everything, and asks what might have filled the vacuum if it had never occurred. Then, Jonathan Martin, the politics bureau chief and senior political columnist at POLITICO joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through his bold predictions for the political landscape heading into 2026, starting with the idea that Donald Trump’s second term is less about governing and more about validation, legacy, and self-mythmaking. The conversation explores Trump as a pop-culture figure obsessed with monuments, family dynasty, and loyalty—rather than policy—along with why the country proved vulnerable to a political huckster in the first place. Martin breaks down why a Supreme Court vacancy could reshape the cycle, why GOP turnout may sag without Trump on the ballot, and which Senate races—from Nebraska to Florida to Ohio—could unexpectedly come into play. The episode also looks ahead to the fault lines inside both parties: potential Trump family bids, early jockeying for the post-Trump GOP, and Democratic candidates who may help—or hurt—their own chances. Martin weighs in on foreign policy flashpoints that could define the next two years, from Iran to Venezuela to Trump’s transactional approach with China, as well as internal administration instability and cabinet shakeups. Plus, sharp takes on approval ratings, California’s unsettled political bench, why political dynasties still matter, and—because it wouldn’t be a Chuck Todd conversation without it—a few college football predictions to close things out. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 “What if” 9/11 never happened? 03:45 9/11 changed how Americans consumed information 04:30 9/11 was the first true “hit” on the homeland 05:30 9/11 create a new sense of vulnerability in America 06:45 The trauma from 9/11 changed the American psyche 08:45 Prior to 9/11, America was living in a post cold-war calm 09:30 In 2000, the west was trying to court Russia into joining them 10:15 Both parties will bullish on integrating China into the world 11:45 Bush would have been more western hemisphere focused 12:45 Without 9/11, Washington would have been more polarized 13:45 The Bush presidency essentially began on 9/11 15:30 9/11 triggered a “need” for immediate information 16:30 Social media is created to provide immediate info 17:15 There’s no Patriot Act, Iraq war, War on Terror without 9/11 18:30 There would be no Department of Homeland Security 19:45 Homeland Security eventually became an immigration agency 21:45 The isolationist strain of MAGA may not materialize 23:15 Some of the responses to 9/11 led to rise of MAGA politics 25:00 9/11 created a new sense of urgency for following the news 26:15 9/11 sped up the adoption of new information technologies 28:15 Do we not have Trump or Obama without hyper-engaged politics? 29:00 John Kerry probably isn’t the nominee in 2004 without 9/11 30:30 What replaces 9/11 if it never happened? 30:45 Financial crisis still happens anyways 31:45 9/11 delayed the “uniparty reckoning” 32:45 Occupy Wall Street would supplant Tea Party as driving force in 2010 34:00 Without Iraq War, there’s less distinction between Clinton & Obama 35:30 9/11 delayed polarization, economic issues by a few years 37:30 “If 9/11 never happened” final conclusions 40:30 “What Ifs” left on the cutting room floor 49:00 Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck ToddCast 51:15 Of his 16 predictions for 2026, which ones stood out the most? 52:00 Trump’s second term is a victory lap, more about validation 53:00 Trump is obsessed with building monuments to himself 54:30 Trump doesn’t take the job seriously 56:30 Trump will likely slap his name on the memorial bridge 57:00 Trump is most like Teddy Roosevelt 58:15 Trump is more a pop culture archetype than a political one 59:00 The country turned out to be vulnerable to ...