Founding Startups Through Market Timing

The best time to start a startup is when market conditions are optimally aligned for its success and scalability. This concept, known as "market timing," is considered the most critical factor for a startup's viability. Founders of highly successful companies can often pinpoint a recent shift in the world that made their venture newly scalable.

This optimal timing is characterized by "market pull," a scenario in which new demand meets low supply. When market pull genuinely appears, customer acquisition becomes inexpensive and easily scalable because customers are actively seeking the product or service.

Market pull is generated by recent changes in one or more of the five fundamental market forces:

• Technology: Innovations or improvements.
• Consumer Behavior: Shifts in people's habits or preferences.
• Environment: Broader social, economic, or natural changes.
• Regulation: Changes in government policies or laws.
• Distribution Channels: The emergence of new platforms for advertising, discovery, or delivery.

Launching a startup before market pull exists is considered "too early," while entering a market that is already saturated is "too late." Both scenarios are primary reasons investors pass on startups. Ideas that seem "obvious" now, like PayPal or Airbnb, often failed in earlier iterations because the necessary technical, behavioral, or financial conditions were not yet supportive; their eventual success came when market timing was finally right.