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A bright dashboard can feel like certainty, but certainty is often the first illusion. We sit down with Dr. Mike Orkin, a seasoned statistician who has advised casinos and Fortune 100 leaders, to explore why smart people make bad calls when the numbers look right—and how to prevent it. From margin of error to the myth of tidy causation, Mike breaks down the difference between patterns worth acting on and patterns that will quietly burn your budget.

We dig into classic misreads—like soda sales “causing” polio or alcohol “causing” lung cancer—and show how hidden variables twist decisions. Then we step onto the casino floor to see probability without the storytelling: independent trials, house edge, and why betting limits protect profits. If you’ve ever heard of positive expected value, you’ll hear why it still fails without disciplined sizing, and how the Kelly criterion turns winning odds into sustainable advantage. Along the way, we tackle lotteries, survivor bias, and the uncomfortable truth that winners often emerge because enough people played, not because someone discovered a secret.

AI enters as both accelerant and trap. Large language models thrive on correlation and can hallucinate when the evidence runs dry. Mike shares practical guardrails for using AI in places like engineering and support—pairing models with domain expertise, testing for failure modes, and resisting the lure of overconfidence. We also zoom out to a leader’s mental model: when to think deterministically, when to think probabilistically, and how to blend data with context, incentives, and human will.

If you’re steering strategy, allocating capital, or building with AI, this conversation offers a clear checklist: respect uncertainty, size your bets, interrogate correlations, and hire experts who can “think with other people’s brains.” Subscribe, share with a data-loving friend, and leave a review with one insight you’ll apply this quarter.

Thanks for tuning in to this episode of Follow The Brand! We hope you enjoyed learning about the latest trends and strategies in Personal Branding, Business and Career Development, Financial Empowerment, Technology Innovation, and Executive Presence. To keep up with the latest insights and updates, visit 5starbdm.com
.

And don’t miss Grant McGaugh’s new book, First Light — a powerful guide to igniting your purpose and building a BRAVE brand that stands out in a changing world. - https://5starbdm.com/brave-masterclass/

See you next time on Follow The Brand!

Send us a text

Thanks for tuning in to this episode of Follow The Brand! We hope you enjoyed learning about the latest trends and strategies in Personal Branding, Business and Career Development, Financial Empowerment, Technology Innovation, and Executive Presence. To keep up with the latest insights and updates, visit 5starbdm.com
.

And don’t miss Grant McGaugh’s new book, First Light — a powerful guide to igniting your purpose and building a BRAVE brand that stands out in a changing world. - https://5starbdm.com/brave-masterclass/

See you next time on Follow The Brand!

Send us a text

What if authority wasn’t about being the best closer, but about creating the safest decision for your buyer? Grant sits down with Doug Brown—CEO of CEO Sales Strategies—to explore how shared context, credible associations, and personal ROI can transform ordinary sales conversations into trust-driven commitments. From New England roots to global brands, Doug shows why familiarity is a strategic lever, not a vanity metric.

We dig into the gap between “good” sales teams and those viewed as market authorities. The surprise: status and positioning can tilt the field before price is ever discussed. Using vivid examples—from first-class optics to iconic venues—Doug explains how perception amplifies pricing power. But he also grounds it in craft: speak to the business ROI and the personal ROI driving real human decisions, whether that’s safety, reputation, or career risk. Buyers sign when they feel both the numbers and the nerves are addressed.

The heart of the conversation is resilience. Doug recounts a costly client pivot that vaporized roughly $2M, then shares the mental and operational playbook that pulled him forward: stop treating symptoms, remove root causes, and take one meaningful step every day toward a clear North Star. We also get practical with a 90-day revenue plan that works without heroics—set a truthful target, do the math on KPIs, reengage dormant clients, increase touchpoints, and define your ideal right-fit buyer to align message and market. We close with a grounded take on AI: use it to accelerate research and outreach, but never outsource the human-to-human moments that make complex deals possible.

If you’re ready to sell with authority, protect your margins, and build pipeline you can trust, this conversation gives you the mindset and methods to start today. Subscribe, share with a teammate who needs a boost, and leave a review with your biggest takeaway—we read every one.

Thanks for tuning in to this episode of Follow The Brand! We hope you enjoyed learning about the latest trends and strategies in Personal Branding, Business and Career Development, Financial Empowerment, Technology Innovation, and Executive Presence. To keep up with the latest insights and updates, visit 5starbdm.com
.

And don’t miss Grant McGaugh’s new book, First Light — a powerful guide to igniting your purpose and building a BRAVE brand that stands out in a changing world. - https://5starbdm.com/brave-masterclass/

See you next time on Follow The Brand!