In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to break down his latest research piece, Investing Amid Trade Wars. Using over two dozen insightful visuals, Kai explores how investors should think about global trade exposure in an era of rising tariffs, economic nationalism, and geopolitical uncertainty. He makes the case for staying invested in high-quality multinational companies—especially those rich in intangible assets—and offers four actionable ways to build more resilient global portfolios. Topics Covered:

Why the market reaction to tariffs is both rational and potentially short-sighted

The long-term outperformance of global vs. domestic firms

How to define and measure global trade exposure at the company level

Real-world trade shocks and what they reveal about investor behavior

The four traits of resilient global firms

Why intangible-heavy businesses are uniquely positioned to weather trade disruptions

International vs. U.S. multinationals: hidden value in non-U.S. stocks

Practical suggestions for portfolio construction in a deglobalizing world

In this episode, Kris Sidial joins Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba to break down the mechanics of tail risk hedging, why most volatility strategies fail, and how his team approaches dislocations in the market. We explore what's really driving volatility behind the scenes, the evolving market structure, and why the current environment may be far more precarious than it appears. If you’ve ever wondered how professional vol traders monetize chaos—or why volatility can stick around far longer than people expect—this episode is for you.

Topics Covered:

What tail risk funds are and why many of them underperform

How to build a long volatility strategy that doesn’t bleed capital

Why rebalancing is a critical component of portfolio resilience

Liquidity fragility and how it amplifies market moves

Retail's role in the latest rally and the fading institutional bid

Structural risks created by passive flows and policy shifts

Monetizing volatility spikes

The psychological traps that lead to poor volatility trading decisions

Why volatility might stay elevated for far longer than most expect

Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about,

Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.

Topics Covered:

Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data

The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China

Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading

What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us

How margin compression could trigger job cuts

The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off

Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points

Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives

Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills

Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos