Episode 71: Be Careful What You Wish For — PRRS, Pig Survival, and the Risk of Too Much Success

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In this solo episode of the Patio Pondering Podcast, Jim Smith explores an uncomfortable but necessary question facing the U.S. pork industry: are we actually prepared for success if PRRS were eliminated?

Drawing on decades of experience in swine nutrition and production, Jim reflects on the long arc of PRRS—from its early emergence in the Midwest to today’s massive investments in disease control and eradication. While improving pig health and reducing mortality is unquestionably the right goal at the farm level, this episode examines what happens when those gains occur across the entire system at once.

Using the 1998 hog market collapse as a cautionary parallel, Jim walks through the physical and economic constraints that still exist today: packing capacity, labor availability, market absorption, and demand response. What happens if millions more pigs survive to market weight—but the infrastructure and markets aren’t ready?

This episode is not an argument against animal health, veterinary innovation, or disease research. It is a systems-level conversation about unintended consequences, second-order effects, and why solving one constraint without planning for what comes next can shift pressure elsewhere.

If you’re involved in pork production, animal agriculture, agribusiness, or agricultural economics—and especially if you lived through 1998—this episode invites you to slow down and think about a question the industry rarely asks out loud:

What happens after we catch the car?