Embracing Uncertainty: A Conversation with Futurist Tamar Kasriel

Tamar Kasriel is a futurist and author of Could: The Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Is Certain.

In this conversation, Tamar traces her unconventional path, from studying history at Oxford to teaching English in rural Japan to advising some of the world's biggest brands on what's coming next. Along the way, she explains why the skills she learned studying historiography (the study of how history is written) are surprisingly useful in an age of disinformation, and why the goal of futures work isn't prediction. It's readiness.

We explore why multiple truths can coexist, why pessimism has no predictive advantage, and why agency, not certainty, is what leaders actually need right now.

This is Part One of two conversations. In Part Two, we'll dive deeper into the ideas in Tamar's book.

Timecodes

00:00 Introduction

02:00 From Oxford to Japan: An unplanned path

08:00 Why multiple truths can coexist

13:00 Retail as "the sharp end of consumption"

21:00 Selfridges: From icon to cautionary tale

28:00 "It's not about being right, it's about being ready"

37:00 How scenario planning saved supermarkets in COVID

44:00 Herman Kahn and the origins of scenario planning

47:00 Why the book is called "Could"

50:00 "Pessimism has no predictive advantage"

55:00 Agency comes with accountability

Socials

Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/tamarkasriel/

Website https://www.tamarkasriel.com/

Links

Could: The Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Is Certain.

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