In this episode, Julien Hoarau and Paul Chavy unpack the sharp drop in EU carbon prices—EUAs falling more than 20% from mid‑January highs above €90/t. Together they explain how a barrage of political headlines, lobbying pressure, leaked documents, and renewed policy uncertainty disrupted what had been a strong structural bullish narrative. The discussion dives into the key reform flashpoints ahead of the EU ETS review—free allocation, the MSR, and the LRF—plus the potential impact of unallocated allowances and how positioning and options dynamics can amplify volatility. Finally, the episode lays out three plausible near‑term price scenarios and assesses whether the structural bull case is truly broken—or simply paused by politics.

Since 2022, gas prices in Europe and Asia have moved closer to oil prices due to supply constraints and fuel switching. This podcast dives into the key drivers behind this link: price indexation, producer strategies, industrial and transport substitutions, and the role of U.S. associated gas production. While market consensus expects gas prices to fall well below oil from 2026, we explore why this scenario might not materialize.

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The EnergyScan podcast is back after the summer break! In this episode, Julien Hoarau discusses the stability of global gas prices ahead of the heating season. Relatively low inventories in Europe, weak demand in Asia and an uncertain geopolitical context are keeping market players in a wait-and-see mode. EUA prices are strong, supported by intense speculative activity. In the electricity market, French prices have fallen due to persistent oversupply, which is weighing on market sentiment, despite exports being on track to reach a new record high this year.

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Contact us at energyscan.gem@engie.com