Jeff Blaylock and RotoWire's Alan Seslowsky return for Part II of their conversation, working through every significant free agency mover and what it means for your dynasty roster before the NFL Draft arrives. Knowing which players to buy now, which to hold, and which to trade away before the market catches up is the difference between a dynasty offseason well-spent and one you'll regret. They close with a look at which veteran players are about to get kneecapped by the incoming rookie class — and how both hosts are planning to use their picks in the degenerate four-quarterback league they share.

Topics Include

• Travis Etienne's move to New Orleans and what it means for Bhayshul Tuten in Jacksonville
• Rico Dowdle in Pittsburgh: real dynasty asset or glorified trade chip?
• The Panthers backfield: Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Brooks, and Trevor Etienne
• A.J. Brown as the run-into-the-burning-building buy of the offseason
• Mike Evans to San Francisco: the easiest veteran buy of the window
• D.J. Moore to Buffalo, Wan'Dale Robinson to Tennessee, and what they leave behind
• Isaiah Likely, Chig Okonkwo, and the tight end middle class
• Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings — buy while unsigned
• Which veterans are primed to get kneecapped by Jeremiah Love's landing spot
• How Jeff and Alan are approaching their rookie draft picks in their shared league

Chapters/Timestamps

00:00 — Intro
00:50 — Travis Etienne & Jaguars Impacts
04:23 — Rico Dowdle in Pittsburgh
08:19 — The Panthers Backfield: Hubbard, Brooks & Trevor Etienne
12:35 — Courtland Sutton & De'Von Achane: Hold or Move?
14:51 — The Seattle Backfield Without Kenneth Walker
18:08 — Time to Buy A.J. Brown or Jaylen Waddle?
22:13 — Mike Evans to San Francisco: Easy Buy
25:35 — DJ Moore to Buffalo & Wan'Dale Robinson to Tennessee
32:08 — Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews & David Njoku
35:30 — Chig Okonkwo: Sneaky Winner of Free Agency
38:29 — Aiyuk, Hill, Deebo & Jauan Jennings: Buy the Unsigned
41:58 — Who Gets Kneecapped by the Rookie Draft?
45:31 — What We're Doing with Our Picks

Links Mentioned on the Show

Episode 29 (Part 1 of this conversation with Alan)

Follow Alan Seslowsky on X:
RotoWire
SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio

Catch The Dynasty Hour, hosted by Alan Seslowsky, on SiriusXM Channel 87, Tues/Wed/Fri 1:00 PM ET

Jeff's Dynasty Rankings
Follow Jeff on Twitter/X

Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

The window between free agency and the NFL Draft may be the most underrated trade market of the dynasty calendar, and most managers are either frozen or making the wrong moves. Jeff Blaylock sits down with RotoWire's Alan Seslowsky to break down how to think about this moment and shares his philosophy of running into the burning building.

In Part 1 of this two-episode series, Jeff and Alan discuss who to target before the market catches up and why waiting for the draft usually costs you more than it saves. They also dig into the 2027 pick hype, the Alec Pierce sleeper case, Kyler vs JJ, Jaylen Waddle's prospects in Denver, and why Kenneth Walker's dynasty value is more complicated than it appears.

Topics Include

• Why the post-free agency, pre-draft window is an undervalued trade market
• Alan's philosophy of running into the burning building
• Dented cans & broken toys: names worth a second look
• The 2027 pick hype: legitimate signal or dynasty groupthink?
• Alec Pierce: overlooked dynasty riser right now?
• How coaching changes create buy and sell opportunities dynasty managers are missing
• Jaylen Waddle's upside in Denver and what it means for the whole offense
• Kenneth Walker: cash out into the Super Bowl MVP hype, or hold?

Chapters/Timestamps

00:00 – That Crazy League We're In Together
05:04 – Should You Ever Rebuild, or Always Go for It?
09:54 – Grading the Offseason Chaos
12:59 – Run Into the Burning Building
17:39 – Dented Cans & Broken Toys
21:09 – Bench Size Changes Everything
24:52 – The 2027 Class Hype: Real or Overblown?
29:14 – The Counterintuitive Play for an 8th Place Team
31:26 – Offseason Storylines We're Sleeping On
36:30 – The Case for Buying Productive Vets Now
39:24 – Jaylen Waddle's Opportunity in Denver
44:38 – Kenneth Walker: Cash Out or Hold?
50:32 – Juggling Leagues & Platforms
55:37 – On Agentic AI: "I Saw War Games"

Links Mentioned

• Rotowire
• SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio
• Follow Alan on Twitter/X
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings at Footballguys
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X

Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Dynasty rookie draft picks look sequential — but they are not created equal. Knowing where the gaps are located lets you trade for value and avoid traps.

In this episode of Dynasty Compass, Jeff Blaylock breaks down the hidden value cliffs that divide rookie drafts into distinct probability bands.

Using nine years of ADP data and rookie performance outcomes, Jeff explains why the 1.01 stands alone, how much value the first 16 picks historically produce, how likely you'll draft a fantasy starter, and why the largest value cliff in the entire rookie draft occurs between picks 2.04 and 2.05.

Understanding where these cliffs exist can help dynasty managers trade down intelligently, capture additional value, and avoid the traps that cause managers to overpay for perceived certainty.

Topics Include

• Why rookie draft picks have no inherent value
• Draft pick bands vs rookie tiers
• The unique value of the 1.01
• Historical hit rates by rookie draft pick
• The 2.04 vs 2.05 “Grand Canyon” value drop
• How your rookie draft is really two drafts
• Trading down to gain dynasty value

Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 The Dirty Secret of Rookie Draft Picks
03:02 The Lottery Ticket Problem
04:18 What Draft Picks Actually Guarantee
06:33 Certainty vs Flexibility in Rookie Drafts
08:50 Draft Pick Bands vs Rookie Tiers
10:06 This Year's 1.03-1.05
12:51 How the Research Was Built
16:27 The Rookie Draft Pick Bands
17:54 Why the 1.01 Is Unique
19:54 Expected Value by Pick Range
23:23 The 2.04 vs 2.05 Chasm
29:05 Example Dynasty Trades
32:52 The Strategy: Trade Down Within Bands

Resources Mentioned in the Show

• Episode 25 - Draft or Trade? 1-Round Rookie Mock with Heath Cummings
• Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide
• Dynasty League Football
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X

Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.