Why is it so important to imagine the worst-case scenario? What happens when we don’t?

In this episode of Delivering Adventure, Chris and Jordy share a few examples from their adventure industry careers to illustrate the importance of considering the worst-case scenario. They also talk about some of the factors that can compromise our ability to foresee what can happen if things don’t go to plan and how we can avoid falling into these traps.

Chris Kaipio has been working in the adventure guiding industry as a guide, instructor, trainer, manager and content developer since 1991.

Jordy Shepard is an internationally certified ACMG / IFMGA Mountain Guide, guide trainer, an avalanche educator, rescue specialist, and a former park warden.

Key Takeaways

How we can imagine the wort-case scenario:

Consider What can Reasonably Happen: This involves asking ourselves what all the possible negative outcomes could be and identifying if we are prepared if they come to pass.

Be detail oriented: The difference between a professional and an amateur is being detail oriented. Considering all the details before hand gives us an opportunity to identify and plan for all the likely outcomes that may happen.

Think ahead: This can require us to step away from complex situations so that we can fully consider the situation and what lies ahead.

Ask if we are Missing Anything: Is there information that we might be missing? This is something that we should always be asking ourselves. This helps to avoid developing tunnel vision.

Do your research: This can involve talking to others and looking at case-studies.

Training and Simulations: This can give us firsthand experience with what can happen.

Communicate the Risks Thoroughly: This creates an opportunity for everyone to understand what hazards they can expect to encounter.

Guest Bios

Chris Kaipio is the produce and co-host of Delivering Adventure.

He has worked in the adventure industry as an instructor, guide, trainer and manager since 2001.

Chris is currently developing the Managing Risk on Snow eLearning Certification for the Professional Ski Instructors of Canada. When complete, this will be a robust four level online risk management and decision-making certification for guides and Instructors.

Chris has written the book Power to Influence: How to get the best out of ourselves and others. He currently serves on the Board of Directors for the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides. This is where he met Jordy Shepherd.

Jordy Shepherd is the co-host of Delivering Adventure.

Jordy is an internationally certified ACMG / IFMGA Mountain Guide, guide trainer, an avalanche educator, rescue specialist, and a former park warden.

His work experience includes Canadian Avalanche Association Course Leader for Avalanche Search and Rescue Advanced Skills, Provincial Park Ranger, National Park Warden, Wildlife Conflict Specialist, Wildland and Structural Firefighter, Mountain and Industrial Rescue Specialist, Heli-skiing Operations Manager and Lead Guide, and Licensed Real Estate Agent.

In addition to all of his work in the adventure guiding industry, Jordy runs a successful real estate company in Canmore Alberta where he currently lives with is family.

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Why is it so hard to make good decisions in higher risk situations? High risk situations are ones where a mistake, a miscalculation or a mishap can lead to serious or unmanageable consequences. These situations are the ones where uncertainty and the threat of experiencing serious consequences can apply pressure that can cloud our judgment.

In this episode Chris and Jordy are joined by Colin Zacharius to explore how we can make better decisions in high-risk situations.

Colin is well renowned ACMG /IFMGA Mountain Guide who has worked in the adventure industry since 1980. Colin has worked as a guide, guide trainer, avalanche educator, accident investigator, risk management specialist and speaker.

He has worked extensively in the cat skiing and Heli-skiing industry in Canada and the US. He has trained and examined guides across multiple disciplines for the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides where he previously served as the technical director.

Colin harnesses his extensive experience working in the adventure industry to help us to understand why it so hard to make good decisions in high-risk situations and how we can avoid some of the mistakes that he has seen throughout his career.

Key Takeaways

How to make better decisions in high-risk situations:

Imagine: What the worst-case scenario could look like.

Practice Good Habits: This includes taking the time to be well prepared, being situationally aware so that you know what is happening or likely to happen and being aware of any human factors that may negatively influence your judgment.

Examine Decisions Afterwards: Either by getting peer feedback, debriefing with your team or by using self-assessment. The intention should be to examine decisions that are made regardless of the outcome, with the intent of identifying things that went well and areas that could be improved. What you really want to identify are trends.

Build in an Adequate Margin of Error: This gives you a buffer in case of a mistake, misstep, miscalculation or there is a surprise.

Avoid Normalizing High Risk Situations: When we become too comfortable in high-risk situations, we become complacent to the danger.

Guest Bio

Colin Zacharius is well renowned ACMG /IFMGA Mountain Guide who has worked in the adventure industry since 1980. Colin has worked as a guide, guide trainer, avalanche educator, accident investigator, risk management specialist and speaker.

He has worked extensively in the cat skiing and Heli-skiing industry in Canada and the US. He has trained and examined guides across multiple disciplines for the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides where he previously served as the technical director.

Colin has contracted as an instructor, course leader, and recently as a curriculum developer for Canadian Avalanche Association (CAA) Industry Training Programs (Level 1-3). He has also provided consulting services for the American Institute for Avalanche Research and Education.

His guiding work has included ski touring, trekking, and climbing adventures with individuals and small groups to domestic and exotic locations (New Zealand, Morocco, Costa Blanca Spain, the Alps, the Dolomites, the Canadian Arctic, Iceland, and the Antarctic Peninsula).

Guest Links

Contact Colin: colinzach@mac.com

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How can we manage hazardous attitudes in ourselves and others?

The FAA in the US has identified five hazardous attitudes that are present in human caused airline crashes. These five attitudes are anti-authority, impulsivity, invulnerability, macho and resignation. These attitudes can negatively impact judgment in any risk-taking situation.

In this episode Geoff Powter shares how we can manage these hazardous attitudes in ourselves and others.

Geoff Powter is a retired psychologist, an experienced climber, writer, and adventurer from the Canadian Rockies. He served as editor of the Canadian Alpine Journal for 13 years and has won 9 National Magazine Awards.

Geoff has authored several books, including Strange and Dangerous Dreams, which won the Jury Prize at the 2006 Banff Mountain Book Festival and was adapted into a radio series. His second most recent book, Inner Ranges, won the Climbing Literature Prize at the Banff Festival in 2019 and the National Outdoor Book Award in the USA. His most recent book Survival Is Not Assured: The Life of Climber Jim Donini, is the Winner of National Outdoor Book Award in the USA.

This is the second episode of two where Geoff, Jordy and Chris explore the five hazardous attitudes that can impact decision making and risk taking.

Key Takeaways

How to manage hazardous attitudes in ourselves and others:

Anti-authority: Is the “do not tell me what to do,” mindset.

To manage this, recognize that rules, guidelines and best practices exist to help us and follow them! To manage it in others, explain the reason why rules exist, give people control when you can, and involve people in decision making as much as possible.

Impulsivity: Is the “do it quickly,” mindset.

To manage this, be methodical, follow all the steps, and slow things down when we feel the need to rush into things.

Also, make others aware of the risk of rushing into things and encourage them to follow systems and processes without skipping steps. This reduces the chance of errors and missing information. It also ensures everyone knows what to do.

Invulnerability: Is the “It won’t happen to me,” mindset

To manage this, remind yourself that bad outcomes can happen to anyone. For others, try to personalize the fact that bad outcomes can happen to anyone by highlighting mishaps that have happened to people they may know. This can include sharing your own stories of misadventure involving negative outcomes. This can help to make things more real.

Macho: This is the “I can do it,” mindset

To manage this, look for signs of overconfidence. Celebrate humility and model an objective approach to decision making that involves accepting that some things may be beyond our capabilities and that’s normal.

Resignation: This is the “what’s the use,” mindset.

To manage this, believe that you have the power to change or influence the situation you are in. Involve everyone in decision making and ensure everyone is heard. Acting on concerns or suggestions can also demonstrate to others that they do have the power to change their situation.

Guest Bio

Geoff is a retired psychologist, an experienced climber, writer, and adventurer from the Canadian Rockies. He served as editor of the Canadian Alpine Journal for 13 years and has won 9 National Magazine Awards.

Geoff has authored several books, including Strange and Dangerous Dreams, which won the Jury Prize at the 2006 Banff Mountain Book Festival and was adapted into a radio series. His second most recent book, Inner Ranges, won the Climbing Literature Prize at the Banff Festival in 2019 and the National Outdoor Book Award in the USA. His most recent book Survival Is Not Assured: The Life of Climber Jim Donini, is the Winner of National Outdoor Book Award in the USA.

In 2012 Geoff was the recipient of the Summit