Data and policy shaping the early 2026 CRE market

We examine the economic data and policy developments setting the tone for the US commercial real estate market in early 2026. Discussing what recent labor reports, GDP estimates, and financing trends suggest about growth, risk, and capital markets conditions heading into the year. The conversation also turns to housing policy, including new local initiatives and national proposals, and how these policy signals could influence supply, affordability, and investment strategy across CRE sectors.

Key Moments:

00:58 Key statistics and market trends

03:26 Economic data and labor market insights

07:56 GDP and service sector analysis

12:18 Housing market update

15:13 Consumer data and AI impact

19:03 Housing policy and national proposals

27:34 Upcoming events and announcements

Resources Mentioned:

Debt Capital Market Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/

Altus Connect Conference - https://events.altusgroup.com/event/altus-connect-2026/summary

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

ADP National Employment Report - https://adpemploymentreport.com/

BLS Employment Situation / December Jobs Report - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

S&P Global US Services PMI - https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/

ISM Services PMI - https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-reports/

Consumer Credit (G19) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/

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