DO BIG SPENDERS ACTUALLY WIN?: 28 Years of Payroll Data-and the Shocking Truth It Reveals

This episode of Locked On A’s digs into the question fans debate every single winter: does spending money in the offseason actually lead to winning? Booney dives into 28 years of MLB payroll rankings and postseason results, from the playoff expansion of 1995 through 2024, and the numbers tell a story that’s far more chaotic than the conventional wisdom. High-payroll teams are consistent October participants, but low-budget underdogs sneak in nearly a third of the time. And when you total everything up? Exactly half of all postseason teams came from the “expected payroll tier”—a perfect 50/50 split that blows apart the idea that money automatically buys winning.

But the episode goes deeper than numbers. Boon explains why analytics, spreadsheets, and salary structures miss the human element that actually determines success. Spending creates opportunity, but only if teams spend on the right players—the glue guys, the clubhouse leaders, the unselfish grinders who elevate a roster. Big payrolls full of “metrics darlings” flame out every year, while smarter, balanced teams find their way to October. This is the truth about MLB spending that nobody wants to admit—and it has major implications for the A’s as they move into their next chapter.

A's, Athletics, Locked On A's, MLB payroll, MLB spending, MLB offseason, MLB free agency, MLB winter meetings, MLB analytics, Moneyball, baseball payroll analysis, MLB postseason trends, MLB salary rankings, MLB competitive balance, big market teams, small market teams, A's offseason strategy, baseball statistics, MLB team building

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