In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Mariko Watanabe, Professor with the Faculty of Economics at Gakushuin University, to examine how China’s pursuit of industrial scale has driven manufacturing dominance while fueling systemic overcapacity and mounting tensions in the global trading system.

China’s manufacturing dominance — now accounting for more than 30% of global output — reflects four decades of industrial strategy, state planning, and coordinated investment that have built one of the world’s most integrated production ecosystems. Yet the same system, anchored in the government’s Catalogue of Industrial Guidance, has also encouraged waves of investment into favored sectors regardless of market demand. This has fueled persistent overcapacity in industries ranging from steel and solar panels to electric vehicles and batteries, contributing to falling prices, global trade frictions, and what some economists describe as “immiserizing growth,” where expanding output depresses prices to the point that export earnings remain modest. As geopolitical rivalry with the United States intensifies, China increasingly treats industrial scale as a strategic asset, reinforcing a cycle of capacity expansion that risks deepening supply-chain fragmentation and destabilizing global markets.

Watanabe argues that addressing these pressures will require both domestic rebalancing toward consumption in China and stronger international cooperation — including more effective trade rules, safeguards, and coordinated action among middle powers — to prevent the gains from industrial scale from concentrating in a single economy.

Tune in to this podcast as Mariko Watanabe, Professor with the Faculty of Economics at Gakushuin University, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to assess how China’s catalog-based industrial policy has driven remarkable manufacturing growth while generating structural distortions at home and growing frictions abroad. The podcast follows up on Watanabe’s recent article for the Hinrich Foundation, “China’s industrial policy a recipe for overcapacity.”

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Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.

In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Stewart Paterson, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, to unpack China’s rare earth monopoly and strategies taken by the West to break its dominance.

China’s control over rare earth minerals stems less from geology than from decades of industrial strategy, subsidies, lax environmental standards, and dominance over processing and refining. Recent export controls have exposed Western vulnerabilities, many rooted in offshoring and the loss of industrial ecosystems needed for advanced technologies. While the United States, the European Union, and allies have begun responding through legislation, investment, and initiatives such as the Minerals Security Partnership, diversification will take at least a decade and cannot be achieved through one-off interventions. Paterson emphasized that rare earths are only one example of broader hidden dependencies, warning that true economic security requires coordinated, cross-border industrial and trade strategies grounded in geopolitical alignment rather than isolated national solutions.

Tune into this podcast as Stewart Paterson, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to break down how China built its rare earths monopoly and what it means for global economic security and supply-chain resilience. The podcast follows up on Paterson’s recent paper for the Hinrich Foundation, “Lessons from how China played its rare earth card.”

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Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade

Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.

In this edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Yuka Hayashi, Vice President of The Asia Group, sits down with former Wall Street Journal senior editor Paul Beckett to unpack the effects of the Trump administration’s tariffs on automakers around the world amid heightened global trade tensions.

The impact of President Trump’s auto tariffs has been uneven, with Japan, South Korea, and Germany most affected due to heavy reliance on US auto exports. Company exposure varies widely — Mitsubishi Motors faces full tariffs due to total imports for US sales, while Tesla and Ford are less affected due to complete domestic production.

Despite the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, Trump imposed steep tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, citing national security under Section 232. Automakers have partly absorbed costs, but consumer prices are rising. The competition for auto production is fuelling political and economic strains globally.

Tune into this podcast as Yuka Hayashi, Vice President of The Asia Group, joins former Wall Street Journal senior editor Paul Beckett, in an interview hosted by the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA and supported by the Hinrich Foundation, to break down how Trump’s auto tariffs are reshaping global supply chains as key automakers are hit and trade relations become strained. The podcast follows up on The Asia Group’s recent paper for the Hinrich Foundation, “Tariffs hit some automakers more than others.”

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Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.