In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to return to the rapidly evolving conflict in Iran as the fighting enters its third week. What began as a regional confrontation has now produced far‑reaching political and economic consequences, both within Iran and across global markets. Oil remains near $100 per barrel, energy infrastructure in the Gulf has been repeatedly struck, and the killing of another senior Iranian figure has escalated uncertainty around the trajectory of the conflict.

Richard provides insight into how Iran’s battlefield setbacks, leadership losses, and retaliatory strikes on Gulf cities are shaping the country’s strategic posture—and how these dynamics are influencing regional partners who once viewed themselves as insulated from direct conflict. The conversation also explores why European countries have declined to join U.S. efforts near the Strait of Hormuz despite their heavy reliance on energy flows through the corridor, and how President Trump’s assertion that the U.S. “doesn’t need help” from NATO is shaping transatlantic tensions.

Clay and Richard examine the roles of China and Russia, both of which have publicly expressed support for Iran, and discuss what this alignment reveals about the broader geopolitical relationship among the three countries. The episode concludes with a look at possible scenarios going forward, from prolonged fighting to broader regional spillover, what policymakers should watch as the conflict evolves, and the sentiment within the United States of entering into this conflict.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Negar Mortazavi, a Journalist, Political Analyst and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy (CIP), for a clear, timely breakdown of the rapidly unfolding conflict in Iran. Less than two weeks after U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted key Iranian government and military sites, retaliatory actions have rippled across the region, impacting energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and global markets.

Negar explains what has transpired since the initial strikes, including the dramatic succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new leader. She discusses the internal political dynamics in Tehran, the likelihood of domestic unrest, and how the Iranian government is framing this moment both internally and regionally. Clay and Negar also examine Iran’s attempts to broaden the conflict geographically and the strategic calculations behind attacks on neighboring countries.

The conversation closes with a look ahead: what escalation or de‑escalation could realistically look like, what all of this means for energy markets and geopolitical stability, and what next steps may be in store.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Meghan Milloy, the IIF’s Managing Director and Head of Corporate Communications, and Martin Boer, General Manager of the IIF’s Brussels Office and Chief Representative, Europe, to revisit Europe at a moment of mounting complexity - fresh off the IIF’s European Summit in Brussels on March 4-5.

Clay reflects on the policy conversations shaping Europe’s agenda; conversations that were already wide‑ranging before a sudden escalation of conflict in the Middle East reshaped the economic backdrop. With crude prices sharply higher and natural gas prices surging, Europe finds itself confronting an immediate energy shock just as it enters the spring with unusually low inventories and reduced access to energy resources.

To begin to unpack these developments and the priorities emerging across the continent, Meghan shares insights from her conversations with policymakers and industry leaders at the Summit, highlighting what is top of mind for European stakeholders, from immediate concerns about energy security to the broader challenge of sustaining growth. Martin brings a view from the ground on regulatory simplification efforts, noting that while the topic is gaining attention, meaningful progress remains uneven. He also discusses the rapid rise of defense financing as a central policy priority and how governments, banks, and investors are weighing ways to support defense needs without crowding out other long‑standing commitments.

Together, Meghan and Martin reflect on the evolving transatlantic relationship and what recent shifts mean for financial cooperation, especially as Europe and the United States grapple with geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain adjustments, and diverging regulatory pathways.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Doug Elliott, Partner at Oliver Wyman, and Andrés Portilla, Managing Director of Regulatory Affairs at the IIF, to take a closer look at the growing global debate over regulatory modernization. Fifteen years after the Global Financial Crisis led policymakers to introduce an expansive set of rules designed to reinforce financial stability, many jurisdictions are now questioning whether the existing framework has become overly complex, duplicative, or limiting to growth.

Together, Clay, Doug, and Andrés unpack what modernization really means today, whether it is simplification, de‑layering, right‑sizing, or true deregulation, and why the conversation is gaining urgency across markets. Doug lays out the philosophical and practical forces behind modernization efforts globally, while Andrés discusses the findings of the recent IIF Report, "Modernization and Simplification — Revamping the Global Banking Regulatory Framework" - underscoring how overlapping constraints and diverging national interpretations create unnecessary friction for banks operating across borders.

The discussion also turns to the ongoing debate over central bank independence, an issue increasingly intertwined with the regulatory modernization agenda. They examine how these debates differ across jurisdictions, how they may influence regulatory decision‑making, and why a credible, independent regulatory framework remains essential for market confidence. In addition, the conversation assesses the role of global standard setters, including the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee, in helping ensure consistency as countries revise their approaches at different paces. Clay and his guests discuss why maintaining coherence across borders is critical, even as national politics, growth priorities, and competitive pressures pull policymakers in different directions.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this emergency episode of Current Account, Clay continues the discussion on tariffs with Chris Padilla from the Brunswick Group after the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday, February 20, ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not provide authority for the president to unilaterally impose tariffs. While much is unknown, the Court made one thing clear: major trade actions require clear legal grounding and a durable policy framework.

The episode contains a special web session recorded on Monday, February 23, where Clay is joined by Chris to analyze why the decision is a meaningful marker for markets, trading partners, and corporations and follows up on on Episode 134, where they discuss a variety of United States trade and policy topics including the possible ruling against the use of IEEPA.

The full video session can be found for IIF members here.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist at Citi and former U.S. Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, to explore Japan’s shifting economic landscape following a historic political moment.* Just over 100 days into her term, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election that delivered a rare supermajority for the Liberal Democratic Party. With such a decisive mandate, Japan enters 2026 with renewed political strength and major policy opportunities.

Together, they discuss what Prime Minister Takaichi’s victory means for economic policymaking, how the U.S.-Japan alliance is shaping the outlook, and the growing debate around possible U.S. intervention in the yen. Nathan offers insight into why intervention is being discussed now, what it would aim to accomplish, and whether it is truly likely given recent messaging from Washington.

The conversation also examines the broader dollar debate, Japan’s uniquely high debt levels, and the pressures facing both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Clay and Nathan conclude with a look at geopolitics, specifically the delicate triumvirate relationship between the U.S., Japan and China, and how this balance could impact the global economy in the year ahead.

*Before jumping into Japan, Clay acknowledges the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision striking down the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs. For more on IEEPA and its implications, check out Current Account episodes [134](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6450/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-134--The-Best-of-Times-and-the-Worst-of-Times--A-Tale-of-Trump-s-Tariffs "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6450/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-134--The-Best-of-Times-and-the-Worst-of-Times--A-Tale-of-Trump-s-Tariffs"), [126](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6360/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-126--Stop--In-the-Name-of-Tariffs---The-Supremes--Court----IEEPA "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6360/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-126--Stop--In-the-Name-of-Tariffs---The-Supremes--Court----IEEPA"), [109](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6166/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-109--An-Eye-for-an-IEEPA--Trump-Tariffs---Where-Are-They-Now- "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6166/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-109--An-Eye-for-an-IEEPA--Trump-Tariffs---Where-Are-They-Now-"), and [96](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6026/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-96--Tariff-o-Rama--Explaining-U-S--Tariff-Implications "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6026/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-96--Tariff-o-Rama--Explaining-U-S--Tariff-Implications").

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Chris Padilla, Senior Advisor at Brunswick Group and former U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, to revisit U.S. trade policy. After a turbulent 2025 marked by sweeping tariffs, new negotiation frameworks, and significant legal uncertainty, trade may feel quieter entering 2026, but remains a central priority for the Trump administration.

Drawing on his years of government and corporate experience, Chris offers perspective on the issues likely to dominate trade policy this year, from the durability of recent agreements with China, the EU, Japan, and Korea to the broader geopolitical shifts driven by tariff realignments and new partnerships.

The conversation also covers the ongoing U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review, an area of heightened uncertainty as political tensions rise among member countries. Clay and Chris discuss how the process could unfold, whether renewal or restructuring is more realistic, and what the implications may be for North American supply chains. They also examine the pending Supreme Court decision on the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs - an outcome with major consequences for U.S. trade strategy.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by two IIF colleagues, Marcello Estevão, Managing Director and Chief Economist, and Gene Ma, Head of China Research and Chief Representative for the Asia-Pacific region, to take a closer look at China’s evolving role in the global economy at a time when growth is no longer the country’s top priority. Long viewed as the engine of global expansion, China is now emphasizing domestic stability, reshaping trade patterns and global economic dynamics in the process.

Drawing on recent travel across the region and insights from the IIF China Economic Forum, they discuss how policymakers and market participants are interpreting China’s shift away from growth-driven stimulus toward a more measured approach. The conversation explores the drivers behind China’s record trade surplus, including the role of weak imports alongside steady exports, ongoing challenges in the housing sector, rising household savings, and persistent deflationary pressures.

Clay, Marcello, and Gene also examine how China’s increasing focus on trade with emerging markets—and reduced engagement with advanced economies—is reshaping global trade flows. The episode concludes with a forward-looking discussion on what really matters for understanding China in 2026, and why the key question may no longer be how fast China grows, but how its new economic posture affects the rest of the world.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.