The stock market is sitting near a record high, so why doesn't it feel that way? This week, a weak jobs report and a cooler inflation number changed the conversation about the Fed, and something strange is happening underneath the surface of the market. Karl explains what it is, introduces a gauge most investors have never heard of, and looks at whether October's reputation in midterm election years holds up. Is the market flashing a warning, or did the correction already happen while nobody was looking?

The Fed just raised rates for the first time since 2023, but that's only half the story. Karl explains why mortgage rates are climbing even faster than the Fed is moving, what the Treasury is doing to try to calm the bond market, and why the 30-year Treasury just hit a level we haven't seen since 2004. Along the way, he shares a simple way to look at bonds that shows just how much has changed since 2020, and what it could mean for savers, borrowers, and investors.

A year ago the Fed was cutting rates. This week it raised them. So is inflation real, or is it just oil? Karl digs into the Fed's credibility, why stocks have often shrugged off the first rate hike, and the one Treasury yield that seems to see the Fed coming before the Fed does. Plus, a viral resignation has the biggest AI labs talking about slowing down. Is it conscience, or is it a moat?