Although geographically distant from Chinese shores, Latin America and the Caribbean occupy an important place in Chinese foreign policy. In the past decade, China has significantly expanded its influence in the region. The main vector of Chinese involvement has been economic, including securing access to commodities such as soybeans, copper, oil, and lithium, creating markets for Chinese companies, and deepening financial ties through trade, lending, and infrastructure investment.

On December 10, China released a new white paper on its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean, the third such document following earlier editions in 2008 and 2016. The White Paper characterizes the region as “an essential force in the process toward a multipolar world and economic globalization.” Its release came on the heels of the Trump Administration’s release of its National Security Strategy, which places unprecedented emphasis on the Western Hemisphere and asserts that the US seeks a region “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets,” highlighting the growing strategic salience of Latin America and the Caribbean in US-China competition.

To discuss the new White Paper and the implications of China’s policies in the LAC for the United States and US-China relations, we are joined by Dr. Evan Ellis. Dr. Ellis is a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. He previously served on the Secretary of State’s policy planning staff with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as international narcotics and law enforcement issues.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[02:07] US and China on a Collision Course?
[04:50] Chinese Priorities in Latin America
[08:33] U.S. Security Risks from Chinese Port Investments
[11:45] How China Uses CELAC to Advance Its Agenda
[14:27] How Latin Americans View China’s Growing Presence
[17:22] Honduras and the Republic of China
[21:22] How Beijing Might Address U.S. Concerns
[25:09] China's Reaction to US and Venezuela

Tensions between China and Japan have spiked since November 7 when Japan’s newly elected prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, said in the Japanese parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a situation threatening Japan’s survival. Under Japan's 2015 security laws, that suggests Japan's self-defense forces could be activated to respond. The following day, the Chinese consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted that China had no choice but to cut off the prime minister’s head. China-Japan relations have since plummeted. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, stated that Takaichi had “crossed a red line that should not have been touched.” China has taken retaliatory actions, restricting tourism to Japan and banning imports of Japanese seafood, among other actions. Why has Beijing reacted so strongly and how far are China-Japan relations likely to deteriorate?

Joining us today to discuss the latest episode in China-Japan relations is Professor Akio Takahara. Professor Takahara is a Distinguished Visiting Professor at Tokyo Woman’s Christian University and an Emeritus Professor at the University of Tokyo. He is also an Honorary Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[02:07] The State of China-Japan Relations Pre-Dispute
[02:49] Beijing’s Reaction and Intended Audience
[05:42] Continuity in Takaichi’s Stance
[10:31] Why a Chinese Takeover of Taiwan is Existential to Japan
[13:03] China’s Signals and Restraint
[16:30] Recommendations for De-escalation
[19:18] Senkaku Islands Dispute in Connection to Taiwan Dispute
[22:04] Beijing’s Potential Claims on Okinawa
[24:23] View in Japan of the US Reaction
[26:36] Takaichi’s Support in Japan

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission has just released its 2025 annual report to Congress. The annual report’s analysis and recommendations are a crucial source of information for Congress, the executive branch, and observers of US-China relations. This year’s report includes 28 key recommendations for Congress.

On this episode of China Global, we have two Commissioners joining us to discuss the report, Commissioner Aaron Friedberg and Commissioner Mike Kuiken. Commissioner Friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and co-director of its Center for International Security Studies. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, counselor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, and previously served as Vice President Dick Cheney’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs.

Commissioner Kuiken is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and advisor to the Special Competitive Studies Project. He has over 20 years of experience shaping US national security policy, including 12 years on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Intro
[1:47] China’s Role in the Axis of Autocracy
[03:22] Best Response from US and Allies?
[05:23] The Interlocking Innovation Flywheels Effect
[07:47] Made in China 2025 Plan: 10 Years Later
[10:25] Why Does Chinese Dominance Matter?
[12:39] Policy Prescriptions for the US
[16:24] Lessons Learned from China Shock 1.0 and Preparing for 2.0
[21:09] Bipartisan Political Will on China Policy
[24:06] Taiwan as a Vital Interest to the US
[28:06] Assuaging Taiwanese Doubts in Congress
[30:17] Taiwan’s Defense Spending Debate