The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission has just released its 2025 annual report to Congress. The annual report’s analysis and recommendations are a crucial source of information for Congress, the executive branch, and observers of US-China relations. This year’s report includes 28 key recommendations for Congress.

On this episode of China Global, we have two Commissioners joining us to discuss the report, Commissioner Aaron Friedberg and Commissioner Mike Kuiken. Commissioner Friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and co-director of its Center for International Security Studies. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, counselor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, and previously served as Vice President Dick Cheney’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs.

Commissioner Kuiken is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and advisor to the Special Competitive Studies Project. He has over 20 years of experience shaping US national security policy, including 12 years on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Intro
[1:47] China’s Role in the Axis of Autocracy
[03:22] Best Response from US and Allies?
[05:23] The Interlocking Innovation Flywheels Effect
[07:47] Made in China 2025 Plan: 10 Years Later
[10:25] Why Does Chinese Dominance Matter?
[12:39] Policy Prescriptions for the US
[16:24] Lessons Learned from China Shock 1.0 and Preparing for 2.0
[21:09] Bipartisan Political Will on China Policy
[24:06] Taiwan as a Vital Interest to the US
[28:06] Assuaging Taiwanese Doubts in Congress
[30:17] Taiwan’s Defense Spending Debate

On October 30, US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea. It was their first face-to-face meeting in 6 years. There was a lot at stake in this meeting for the US and China, as well as for the rest of the world. In my view, the outcome is best described as a fragile truce. The path forward for US-China relations remains uncertain – greater stability and predictability is possible, but not assured. Intense competition across several domains, especially technology, is likely.

Today’s episode focuses on the Trump-Xi summit and the future of US-China relations, featuring Mr. Dennis Wilder. Dennis is a senior fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, where he previously served as the managing director, and assistant professor of the practice in Asian studies in the School of Foreign Service. He served on President George W. Bush’s NSC first as director for China and then as senior director for Asian Affairs. He also had a distinguished career in the CIA, where he held many positions, the last of which was senior editor of the Presidential Daily Brief.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[1:57] Trump-Xi Summit: A Win for China?
[09:03] Fact Sheet Discrepancies
[14:37] Trump Administration’s China Strategy
[16:47] Achieving Chinese Exceptionalism
[19:20] China’s Confidence and Potential Instability
[21:26] Why No Taiwan Mention?
[24:48] An Inflection Point for Greater Stability?
[27:50] Indo-Pacific View of the US-China Relationship

From October 20-23, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party held its Fourth Plenum in Beijing, marking an important moment as the Party sets the direction for China’s development for the next five years. The session adopted recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, endorsing Xi Jinping’s goals of high-quality development, scientific and technological self-reliance, and strengthening national security in response to rising global instabilities. The Central Committee also announced the replacement of 11 members, the highest personnel turnover since 2017 amid an ongoing anti-corruption purge in the military.

To discuss the plenum’s outcomes, we are joined by Jonathan Czin. Jonathan is a leading expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy. He holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He previously led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policy making at the CIA and also spent two years as director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Start
[01:36] Why the Fourth Plenum Matters
[03:37] Key Takeaways: Policy Continuity and Political Purges
[05:07] Zhang Shengmin and Xi Jinping’s Military Ambitions
[09:23] Signals and Adjustments in Economic Planning
[11:56] Previewing the 15th Five-Year Plan
[13:33] Xi Jinping’s Growing Confidence
[17:42] Political Messaging and Choreography
[20:21] Language in the Communique: “Strategic Resolve”
[22:28] What to Expect from the Xi-Trump Summit
[26:38] Is Beijing Worried the Summit Could Backfire?