On February 28th, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on multiple sites in Iran, marking the beginning of a wider military conflict with Iran. Tehran responded with attacks on Israel, US military bases, and US allies across the Middle East and closed the Strait of Hormuz. These events have caused a major disruption in the global supply of oil and gas. China, as the world’s largest energy importer, is exposed to these disruptions, but its long-term energy security strategy has left it better prepared than most.

How has China approached energy security, and how might the current conflict reshape this strategy? To discuss these issues, we are joined today by Dr. Erica Downs. Erica is a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. Her research focuses on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics, and she has published extensively on the subject.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[01:38] China’s Energy Security Strategy
[03:54] Divergent Approaches to Energy Security in the US and China
[06:03] Beijing’s Response to Supply Chain Shocks
[09:55] Dependencies on Russian Oil & Gas
[12:33] New Lessons for Chinese Policymakers?
[15:30] Impact on Teapot Refineries and Responses
[18:37] Percentage of Chinese Oil and Gas Impacted
[23:26] Could China Buy Gas from the US?
[25:15] Potential Wins and Losses for Chinese Industries

President Donald Trump is expected to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2 for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It will mark the first meeting between the two leaders since they agreed to a trade truce last October that ended months of escalating tensions prompted by tariffs imposed by the United States and Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris later this week to explore possible outcomes that could be announced during the Beijing summit. Planning for such a major summit usually takes place over several months, and is getting underway quite late, causing many observers to question whether anything meaningful can be achieved.

In the meantime, the US is distracted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and a US-Israel coalition. To discuss the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, we're joined today by Dr. Da Wei. He is director of the Center for International Security and Strategy and professor of International Relations at Qinghua University.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[01:40] The Status of US-China Relations
[03:07] Middle East War Impact on the Bilateral Relationship
[05:36] Rethinking the US Decline in Chinese Foreign Policy
[08:23] Chinese and US Sources of Leverage
[13:01] Beijing’s Goals for the Trump-Xi Summit
[19:52] New Language for Taiwan
[30:12] Expanding Chinese Investment in the US?
[32:03] Potential for US-China Cooperation on Iran?
[35:54] Implications of Military Officer Purges

The United States is once again considering military strikes to curb Iran’s nuclear activities and missile program. China has emerged as a particularly important partner of Iran, serving as the country’s largest trade partner and one of its few sources of consistent diplomatic backing. For Beijing, the stakes in the relationship extend beyond energy security, but also include great power competition with the US and China’s broader strategic ambitions in the Middle East. There are reports that Iran is close to finalizing a deal to purchase supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles from China.

To unpack China-Iran relations and these recent dynamics, we are joined today by Jonathan Fulton. Jonathan is a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council and an associate professor of political science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi. His research focuses on China-GCC relations, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and Chinese foreign policy.

This episode was recorded on February 26, 2026.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[01:33] China’s Interests in Iran and Possible Reactions
[04:55] Challenges to Diversifying Oil Imports
[09:40] Using Oil Purchases as Leverage with the US
[10:59] Frictions in the China-Iran Relationship
[12:41] Iran in China’s Middle East Strategy
[16:00] Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program
[21:56] China-Russia Coordination in Iran Strategy
[25:54] Tehran's Points of Leverage with Beijing and Moscow
[29:14] Potential Disruptors to the China-Iran Relationship