China Buys 87% of Soybean Target + Trump vs. Powell

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🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks)
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report.
• Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large
• Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly
• US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower
• Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly
• Corn exports are forecast at record highs
• Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China
• World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged

🇨🇳 China Buys More US Soybeans
China purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment.
• At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf
• The remainder will ship from the PNW
• The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin
• Several smaller flash sales were also reported last week
Despite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship.

🚢 USDA Flash Sale Update
USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
• Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year

🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest Begins
Brazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal.
• 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39%
• Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year
• Warm, dry weather is expected to persist
Both Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop.

📊 CFTC Fund Positioning
For the week ending January 6:
• Funds were net buyers of corn
• Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend)
• Net sellers of SRW wheat

💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate Cap
President Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%.
• Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability
• Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments
• Proposal could take effect as early as January 20
Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.