Ceasefire or Low-Intensity War? What’s Really Happening in Gaza

On paper, Gaza is in a ceasefire. On the ground, Israeli military operations continue, borders inside the strip are shifting, aid access is tightening, and more than 400 people have been killed since the agreement came into effect last year.

Humanitarian organisations, including Doctors Without Borders, have been suspended from operating in Gaza under new Israeli registration rules, while reconstruction remains blocked and civilians are being killed near expanding control lines. At the same time, new Israeli settlements have been approved in the occupied West Bank, raising further questions about whether the ceasefire is stabilising the region or quietly storing up the conditions for more violence.

Professor Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics argues that what now exists is not a ceasefire at all, but a region-wide low-intensity war. He joins Shane Beatty on the podcast to assess whether the current arrangement was ever designed to hold, how credible the US role as mediator really is, and why the risk of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran in 2026 may be higher than many are willing to acknowledge.

Is this a genuine pause on the road to peace, or simply a different phase of the same conflict?