Since the regime brutally crushed opposition protests in 2020, Belarus has rarely made the headlines. Some see the country as a loyal satellite of Russia, stripped of all agency, others overlook it entirely. Despite the lack of attention, though, much of significance is currently underway. In recent months, Belarus has hosted Western officials, released political prisoners, and apparently tried to distance itself from Moscow (despite allowing Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory). What is happening inside Belarus? And what should Western officials understand about one of the most important pieces of the European security puzzle?

For additional insight on a possible Russia-Europe conflict, and the role of Belarus, see Artyom Shraibman's paper.

You can also read Balázs Jarábik's piece on Belarus.

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, life for Russia’s rich and powerful has passed the point of no return. The recent suicide of Roman Starovoit is the first case in post-Soviet Russia of a cabinet minister taking their own life when faced with an investigation and possible prison term. For many, it has brought back memories of Joseph Stalin’s purges in the 1930s. How are members of the Russian elite processing Starovoit’s death? If the old rules of the game no longer apply, are there any new rules? How will the death affect Putin’s control over his power vertical?

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Alexandra Prokopenko's piece on Roman Starovoit's death.

Tatiana Stanovaya's piece on Russian elites.

This year’s NATO summit was very unusual on multiple levels. Amid the disruption brought by Donald Trump’s presidency, and with Ukraine’s European allies adamant that continuing U.S. leadership is needed to help the embattled country at the most critical point in its defensive war against Russia, NATO members made an unprecedented commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. Where is NATO headed under Trump 2.0? Will its European members be able to implement the defense spending targets set in The Hague? What lessons is the Kremlin taking from the summit, and how could NATO affect Putin’s war optimism?