India is reporting 8%+ GDP growth and cooling inflation, yet stock market returns are muted, the rupee continues to weaken, and everyday expenses feel anything but stable.

So which reality should we trust?

In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the contradictions shaping India's economy today. From headline vs core inflation to GDP data quality, rupee depreciation, and why markets aren't rewarding growth, they connect macro numbers to lived experience.

A nuanced, data-driven conversation on what truly lies beneath the headlines and what it means for investors, policy watchers, and India's economic trajectory heading into 2026 and beyond.

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:15 - GDP growth 8.2% but contradictions everywhere
02:32 - Are we booming or fizzling out?
02:55 - Let's start with inflation
08:09 - Headline inflation 0.71% vs core inflation 4.1%
10:07 - Why people don't believe 0.7% inflation
12:08 - Bangalore rent example - 28k to 60k
15:10 - Supply will moderate rent prices
17:37 - Inflation expectations matter
21:05 - Uncertainty makes planning difficult
22:07 - What's happening with the rupee?
22:36 - Economics standing on its head
24:08 - Gold making current account look worse
28:31 - RBI needs to decide - control or not?
31:37 - GDP - 8.2% real growth
35:29 - Base year problem - still using 2011-12
40:37 - Discrepancies in GDP calculation
43:11 - What's driving growth?
43:16 - Manufacturing doing well at 9%
47:43 - Financial services growth worrying
48:05 - Is 8% growth here to stay?
51:42 - China grew 10% for 15 years
56:22 - Stock market - just a bad year?
59:16 - Small players will benefit more
1:05:38 - SEBI new rules on TER and BER
1:06:04 - What are the changes?
1:17:47 - TER vs BER explained
1:23:23 - Who benefits from new rules?
1:30:18 - Brokerage reduction impact
1:34:16 - Impact on sell-side research
1:36:17 - BER is more comparable going forward

Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capitalmind to expose how proxy advisors, index manufacturers, credit rating agencies, and one costly habit are secretly making decisions about your investments.

What we uncover:

Proxy Advisors: How Glass Lewis and ISS voted against Elon Musk's $1 trillion Tesla package—and why their word has become gospel for fund managers managing your money

Index Manufacturers: Why NSE and BSE make subjective calls in supposedly "objective" indices. The HDFC-HDFC Bank merger and Reliance-Jio demerger reveal they're acting more like fund managers than neutral rule-followers

Current Account Waste: ₹21 lakh crores sitting idle in corporate accounts earning zero interest—₹40,000 crores in lost profits annually

Deepak breaks down why passive investing isn't truly passive, how the NBFC rule hurts startups, and why transparency matters as index funds take over the market.

Timestamps:
0:00 - Three institutions controlling your money

1:44 - Proxy Advisors - Fighting Elon Musk

6:28 - Proxy advisors have their own agendas

13:30 - Proxy advisors becoming gospel

17:16 - Index Manufacturers - Second institution

18:24 - 35 lakh crores active vs 12 lakh crores passive

20:22 - Index no longer objective function

26:45 - Index manufacturers becoming fund managers

32:01 - Credit Rating Agencies - Third institution

35:21 - Big names get triple A ratings easily

37:52 - Market knew ILFS wasn't triple A

41:37 - Don't link things strictly to ratings

46:25 - Why so much money in current accounts?

49:00 - Could add 40,000 crores to profits

49:36 - Startup NBFC rule problem

56:37 - Reduce need for inefficient buffers

For 17 years, Deepak Shenoy has made annual Diwali predictions about markets, crashes, interest rates, and more. But how many were actually right?

Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capitalmind to examine his prediction history from 2007 to 2024. He correctly called the 2008 crash and Trump's 2024 victory. But real estate and gold? Wrong almost every year.

We break down why most predictions fail and what makes the rare successful ones different. Deepak explains the three elements of valid predictions (direction, magnitude, timeframe), why cash on sidelines signals crashes, how AI bubbles mirror 2000, and why interest rates are easy to predict but impossible to profit from.

This episode breaks down crashes, bubbles, and market timing, offering honest takes that you can actually use. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more real insights on building wealth in Indian markets!

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction & 2024 Predictions Recap
01:00 Will There Be a Market Crash in 2025?
03:40 How AI Could Trigger the Next Crash
06:15 Why This Time Is Different from 2008
09:40 US Recession + Inflation = Stagflation?
12:10 Why Indian Markets May Keep Rising
15:00 The Real Estate Prediction Trap
20:20 Gold, Inflation & Interest Rate Outlook
28:20 Japan's 30-Year Debt Problem Explained
33:40 Can the Rupee Go Global?
40:20 Why Predictions Usually Fail
46:00 Don't Predict, Respond Instead
50:10 Deepak's 2025 Predictions Recap
58:00 Closing Thoughts